Hey Folks...Happy Monday to everyone and I hope you survived the bout of wintry weather over the weekend. Ironically we had another spot or two of it this morning as the moisture flow increased from the south, creating a few patches of freezing rain. Luckily it wasn't widespread and didn't last long, and that south wind really took care of the warming things up a bit through Monday afternoon. Even with a mix of clouds and sun, high managed to run up to around 50 degrees through the late afternoon. The warming trend will continue and then some heading into Tuesday.
With a cold front and an area of low pressure cranking up to our west, we are in for a fairly windy period the next 48 hours or so. Winds should pick up a bit more overnight with gusts 20 to 25 miles per hour. Since the winds will be southerly, that should help hold early morning lows up into the low 40s, then really help us climb in the temperature depertment for Tuesday. Highs should reach the upper 50s and if the rain holds off long enough a few spots may hit 60 degrees down south. Keep in mind the wind will be at its strongest just ahead of the front, gusting from 35 to 40 miles per hour. The rain chances really ramp up through the afternoon Tuesday with a good widespread event expected into Tuesday night. The models are in agreement with the timing and moisture content so we could see a good 1"-2" rain spread throughout the region. Keep in mind we are still in a bit of a drought so this would really help matters. Here is a look at this morning's 12z runs for Tuesday evening.
NAM Tuesday evening
GFS Tuesday evening
The short range ensembles really pick up on the rainfall potential through the commonwealth...note all the red over Kentucky for the 24 hour period ending Wednesday afternoon, which indicates a 2"-3" rain (may be a bit overdone but shows the potential)
Some colder air should wrap in on the backside of this system on Wednesday so temps may be steady early, then drop off the course of the day. We should wake up to temperatures in the low and mid 40s but be down into the 30s by days end. It should be the typical rain showers ending as snow showers deal, and I'll be interested to see how much of the moisture hangs back into the chilly air. It doesn't look like a drastic drop, but a slow decline through the day.
A low pressure center may develop to our southeast and head up the coast, with a few of the models throwing a bit of juice into Southeastern Kentucky on Friday, so I've thrown the slight chance in for now. Everything is starting to trend warmer for the weekend and into Monday as the Arctic air builds into the upper Midwest. Just how quickly it slides south and east will be something to watch later in the week.
I finished 3-2 with both college and pro picks this week...average again, which has been my MO all season long. I'm 4 solo tackles (from Carolina's middle linebacker tonight in the Monday night game) away from making it 5 wins in a row and basically having a share of 1st place with 3 weeks left. Ironically I play the team that I may conceivably be tied with for first this coming Sunday so it's another do or die week. I still have to get through tonight...and oh yeah...once again Brian Westbrook is money, injured or not!!!
Have a good one and we'll talk soon.
That's all for now!
T.G.
