Hey Folks...what a wild day it has been on this Tuesday! First the wind and the warmth here in Kentucky, then the moderate to heavy rain (at least for some folks through the early and mid afternoon). As expected a strong south wind kicked up early Tuesday with gusts up to around 45 miles per hour. I know much of my lawn furniture out back go rearranged promptly thanks to the high wind, so that took some work righting that ship. The plus side of the wind though was late morning/afternoon highs into the low and mid 60s in most spots. This felt like the proverbial "heat wave" compared to what we have seen lately. Eastern Kentucky enjoyed it the longest into the late afternoon since the rain held off there. Everyone gets in on the act with a good soaking into Wednesday.

The moderate rain really picked up in the bluegrass roughly mid-afternoon, and I can hear it pounding on the roof above me as I type this. Folks in far Eastern Kentucky need to sit tight into the early evening, when the moisture should finally make it out your way. Even if you don't get a lot this first round, there should be more to come overnight and into early Wednesday plus it's looking more likely know additional rain will be possible into Thursday...especially south and east. More on that in a second.

Everything is still lined up for a good 1"-2" inch soaker for much of the region and it's possible we could see some higher localized totals. The front to our west is really slowing down and with a wave of low pressure sliding along it, we should see some additional development/enhancement of the rain later tonight and into early Wednesday. Even the short range ensembles crank up the totals for the region. Keep in mind this is just guidance, but take a look at the 24 hour rainfall total from the SREF ending early Wednesday afternoon...nice 4" plus bullseye just to our west. A little overdone I'm sure but you get the idea.

Given the snail's pace and some lingering moisture, I still think we mix in a bit of sleet/snow flakes on the back side into Wednesday afternoon, although it may be after sunrise Wednesday before we even drop into the low 40s. As long as temps fall slowly into the mid and upper 30s into the afternoon, we should see some mix in. It doesn't look like anything major...just don't be surprised by some sleet/snow making an appearance on the back end.

Thursday is now suddenly becoming much trickier. A second area of low pressure will develop to our south and ride northeastward toward the eastern seaboard. The NAM and GFS both crank out some decent moisture but the storm's position relative to Kentucky is much different with the 12z run. The NAM is farther east and basically bypasses us, while the GFS has the low farther west with a good slug of moisture into the eastern half of Kentucky Thursday with some snow in the colder air on the backside into Friday. The flip-flopping may continue the next few runs but I'm banking on some activity in here on Thursday. See the difference for yourself.

NAM Thursday afternoon

GFS Thursday afternoon

Quite a difference as you can see. We'll see how it all shakes out and Friday looks a bit colder now with highs only in the mid and upper 30s. The good news for the weekend (especially Sunday) is that we should see a warming trend with highs back into the low and mid 50s.

Thanks to 8 solo tackles from Carolina's middle linebacker...it's 5 in a row for my team, I'm in 2nd place mere points out of first and I'm now playing the first place team this week for the outright lead! A win this week would be huge since being up a game or two on the rest of the competition with just a few weeks left is a plus! Talk about rising from the dead...LOL. Hopefully the positive karma continues!

Everyone be safe out there and watch out for ponding of water on the roadways while you are driving!

That's all for now!

T.G.