Hey folks...I hope Wednesday has been a good one for you, and it looks like the active weather of late will be sticking around into Thursday. First things first...as expected we saw a good soaking rain Wednesday and into early Thursday with most locations picking up 1"-2" of rain. It's just what the doctor ordered given the drought situation and it appears now that more rain (along with some wintry weather) is on the way for the end of the week. You know Kentucky weather in "winter"...always complicated/never boring.

Let me start by saying that dealing with this system is sort of like buying a house...its location, location, location! With this low tracking by just to our east, the exact path that it takes will be a big determining factor in who gets what...namely how far northwest the precipitation shields gets into Thursday, AND at what point the colder air pours in and changes things over to snow. Right now in my book these are the 2 big dilemmas and they will have an affect on the smash Thursday. The bottom line is the farther southeast you are in Kentucky; the better chance you'll see some heavier rain to start followed by some snow on the ground since obviously you'll be much closer to the center of the dance floor!

The colder air took a while working southeast on Wednesday, but most locations should see the low and mid 30s into early Thursday. This may prove critical for precipitation type. I do think the Lexington metro area will be on the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield, and given expected lows around 30 degrees, it appears Central and Northeastern Kentucky stand the best chance of see a "wintry mix" early Thursday, thus affecting the morning commute. Southern and Southeast Kentucky should just be a cold rain with temps into the mid and upper 30s. With the moderate to heavy rain threat there, a Flood Watch is up for Thursday for many of the border counties into the south and southeast.

As Thursday rolls on, the "mix" up north becomes a chilly rain so it's a bit wet across the board through the lunch hour. Once we hit the afternoon, the waiting game begins. As the low begins to head by to our east, winds will shift around to the north and northeast so a change to snow should occur late afternoon/early evening. With the moisture still pretty abundant in the southeast, a few inches of snow are legitimately possible Thursday evening/night as this system pulls northeastward. 

Once again a few miles may make a difference in it being wet/wintry, or basically cloudy all day. I think the farther north and west of Lexington you go, the chances ramp down...they are still there mind you, but they are less. 

Of course depending on your model of choice, you'll get various outcomes with this system. The 12z runs of the NAM and GFS were decent, with the NAM continuing to be a bit slower. I'll have to say the GFS has done much better with some of these systems of late, and given that it's been fairly consistent with this low...I've been shading toward it just a bit. I did take a quick glance at the 18z run of the NAM, which kept a good bit of the juice southeast of us and was pretty slow with bringing the precip shield in. Here is a look at the 12z stuff for Thursday evening.

NAM Thursday evening

GFS Thursday evening

Here are a few snow accumulation maps for good measure. Of course take them with a grain of salt, but they clearly show the increasing snow chances for the southeast with a few inches possible.

GFS snow accumulation by 7am Friday morning

SREF 12 hour snow accumulation by 4am Friday morning

Once we get this system out of our hair, it gets chilly for Friday with highs in the mid 30s before we see a spike in our temperatures over the weekend. By Sunday and into Monday we should be into the 50s with showers looming, but we'll head the other direction by Tuesday with cooler air coming back....overall no major changes for that time period.

I'll be watching how things play out from the sidelines on Thursday. I haven't had an extra day off in a couple of months and it's time to get reacquainted with the family. I realize the timing is bad for updates on here, but sometimes you have to take a step back and smell the roses...everyone can appreciate that. I may try to throw a quick update on-line at some point, but I can't make any promises of course. Those gals at home have me locked down when I'm off since they see me so rarely...lol.

So with that thought...everyone have a good rest of the week and weekend to come, and I hope you get some snow if you truly want it. I'll check if I can in the coming days. Keep those comments coming since I always try to make sure they get approved and on as quick as possible. I do have an idea that I'm going to approach the "powers that be" with...it may make it easier to post and could be close to the "old way" of posting. I'll have more on that later if there is potential.

That's all for now!

T.G.