I have offered my full analysis of the tropics over the last few days here and I'll tell you it just keeps getting more and more complicated. As Hurricane Ike continues moving through the the Atlantic and Hanna nears the coast... it throws my mind into a whirl! OH YEAH.... don't forget Josephine! So today I'll try to be brief, yet, share a lot of information again!
Before I start the Tropical Chatter I'll explain the local forecast to you guys. IT appears that a cold front will swing into Kentucky on on Friday. That front will reach us by late Friday night or early Saturday morning. I am throwing at least a 20% chance of showers into the forecast for this time frame. I actually think the chances could go up on Saturday. The probability of precipitation could be up to 40% by that point! This will also open to the door for some cooler temperatures to return to Kentucky. It shouldn't be a huge drop in temps... just the arrival of some refreshing air to the region.
I'd love to see some real rain arrive, but it keeps running away from Kentucky. New drought information is out and here is where we stand!
- ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE RECENT RAINS FROM
THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF AUGUST WERE ABOUT AS DRY AS IT GETS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 RECORDING A HALF INCH OR LESS OF
RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD. WITH RATHER HEALTHY LONG TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS ALREADY IN PLACE... THIS DRY SPELL CAUSED QUICK DEVELOPMENT
AND INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BROUGHT ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE AREA ON AUGUST 26TH AND 27TH...
AND THIS RAIN HELPED A GREAT DEAL... BUT ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WHILE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED ON AUGUST 28TH.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM FAY FELL AFTER
8 AM AUGUST 26TH... THE CUT OFF TIME FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
FACTORED INTO THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT. IMPROVEMENTS THESE RAINS
MADE IN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS... IF ANY... WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE
NEXT DROUGHT MONITOR... WHICH WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 4TH.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
AS OF MONDAY SEPTEMBER 1ST... MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN THE
TOP 12 INCHES OF SOIL ARE AVERAGING ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THANKS TO THE RECENT RAINS FROM FAY. TAKING A DEEPER SAMPLE THOUGH
REVEALS THAT THE SOIL MOISTURE IN THE TOP 72 INCHES OF SOIL IS
AVERAGING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OR 5 TO 15 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.
RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS.
AS OF MONDAY SEPTEMBER 1ST... RECENT RAINS HAVE BROUGHT IMPROVED
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AND MOST SITES ARE NOW RANKING AROUND NORMAL
STREAM FLOWS FOR THE DATE. THE RED RIVER IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER AS
FLOWS AT BOTH THE HAZEL GREEN AND CLAY CITY GAGES REMAIN BELOW
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL. BEFORE THE RAINS FROM FAY FELL... FIRE ACTIVITY WAS NOTED
IN BELL... JOHNSON... LEE... LESLIE... LETCHER... MARTIN...
MCCREARY... PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL BRING A QUICK WORSENING OF THE FIRE
DANGER AND AS OF THURSDAY AUGUST 28TH... BURN BANS CONTINUE IN
EFFECT FOR FLOYD... JOHNSON... MAGOFFIN... MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES.
THOSE WANTING TO CONDUCT OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTACT YOUR LOCAL
COUNTY JUDGE/EXECUTIVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL FROM THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY RANGED FROM LESS
THAN AN INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 TO UP TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY NEAR THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS. EVEN WITH THIS
RAINFALL... THE MONTH OF AUGUST ENDED WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS AT MOST
STATIONS. IN FACT... THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE ENDED LAST MONTH
NEARLY THREE INCHES DRIER THAN NORMAL AND AUGUST 2008 WAS THE DRIEST
AUGUST ON RECORD AT THE STATION... AND IN THE TOP TEN DRIEST MONTHS
OF ALL TIME (CLIMATE RECORDS DATE BACK ONLY TO 1981 AT THE JACKSON
WEATHER OFFICE). AT LONDON... AUGUST 2008 FINISHED WITH A
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT OF WELL OVER AN INCH. AUGUST WAS THE 6TH MONTH
THIS YEAR TO FEATURE A RAINFALL DEFICIT AT JACKSON AND THE 5TH MONTH
TO DO SO AT LONDON.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE ILLUSTRATES THE SHORT... MEDIUM... AND LONG
RANGE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OR SURPLUSES BEING OBSERVED AT SEVERAL
EAST KENTUCKY OBSERVING STATIONS. THESE AMOUNTS INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION WHICH FELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT AUGUST 31ST...
||29.91 - Since Jan. 1st, 2008
||-1.68 Behind Normal
||28.48 - Since Jan. 1st 2008
||-5.48 Behind Normal
||29.68 - Since Jan. 1st, 2008
||-5.45 Behind Normal
||26.31 - Since Jan. 1st, 2008
||-5.85 Behind Norma
On to the Smoking Hot Tropics!!!!
This map shows all of the current storms and even areas highlighted for potential development. One of these has the actual name of each storm while the other shows the satellite images with each storm highlighted.
Hanna is looking a little weak here lately and isn't expected to come ashore as a Hurricane. It looks like this storm will remain a Tropical storm. My significant other's brother is currently at Parris Island for training and I know the whole family has been worried about what this storm will do. I think if it does remain a tropical storm and keeps the pace high... it shouldn't be a major problem. Storm surge and high winds won't be a huge factor. Don't read my words wrong and think that I mean it will be a walk in the park... it will still be nasty. I am just saying I hope it remains a TS! So honey... tell your mother & father that I think all shall be safe over there.
Ike is where my concern really begins to grow... Hurricane Ike has made it up the Saffir-Simpson Scale to the Category 4 level. Some weakening will likely happen over the next 24-48 hours. That weakening may not be enough though... if it stays on the westward track it could roll right into Florida as a major hurricane. However, it could also get a push to turn north and then northeast over the next few days. If that happens it could skirt the east coast or be pushed back out into the Atlantic. Here's the track from the NHC...
Watch this one very closely my friends... very closely!