I got to thinking about how much rain we had towards the first of the year and how that has prevented us from being even worse off than we are right now. Obviously, we need several more inches to get us back up to where we should be. However, if we hadn't received the early rains we would have been in really bad shape. We were running behind then too... but we kept the gap between what we should be seeing and what we were actually seeing very close. Out of the first six months of the year we recorded one month above the normal and that was in April. The first 4 months was the best run for us. For those for months we were only around 1 1/2 behind. Which is as close as we have been in a while!
Now I sit here watching and hoping for two scenarios to play out. In my last post I mentioned a cold front swinging to at least throw a shot of rain in our direction. It appears now that this cold front could wash out before it ever gets close enough to give us any real chance of showers. There is some better news with a disturbance that could develop just off the east coast. The problem with that is these are tricky to follow!
You'll see here in the next part of this post what the low looks like it will do over the next several days. The days that rain could be around here haven't changed since last week. Though I surely didn't see this part of it coming into play until I was looking over some things this past weekend!
This is the WRF/NAM run for Friday morning. This is a little more agressive than the earlier run. It is showing plenty of moisture across Kentucky.
This is the GFS at the same time. Notice that it isn't showing any moisture over eastern Kentucky. We'll wait and see if these runs can get together.
Since the WRF has been a little more consistent... I am going to court it for the time being. So I am keeping a 20% chance of showers in the forecast for both Friday & Saturday.
The rest of the work week should stay on the dry side with highs in the upper 70s - low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.