Eastern Kentucky Weather

It's Getting Closer, But Will It Make It Here?

Again, I am referring to the rain possibilities for the end of the week. Why dwell on that? It is the most exciting thing to happen to weather since I tried to shave Rob Hopkins head! That obviously didn't end well. However, this might end with at least a little splash & dash!

So let's enjoy yet another dry day on Thursday with those comfortable temperatures that we have come to enjoy. There will be a couple of things that make Thursday very different from the rest of the week and that will be more clouds drifting into our eastern skies. They will start out high and thin early in the day and eventually thicken up by the afternoon and evening. Let the clouds be your guide Thursday. The areas you start seeing the clouds thicken up at will also be the same locations that we'll see approaching showers coming in from. Which is abnormal since most weather systems travel from west to east. Highs upper 70s and lows mid-upper 50s.

The forecast challenges for Friday & Saturday are weighing heavily on my mind. Such as... will the high sitting in New England be strong enough to push the low close enough to Kentucky to see rain. The answer to that challenge is yet to be determined, but I think there will be enough strength for the high to bring to the right in to our territory.

The next challenge is temperatures on Friday. Will the clouds and rain be enough to keep us down in the 60s for daytime highs? The data has been hinting that over the last couple of days. So far, the coastal locations have seen some really cool temperatures all thanks to the influence of the low. I need to see how this same system will affect more locations farther inland. Then I might drop the highs down 5-10 degrees. So don't be surprised if my Thursday forecast for Friday will be a much cooler one!

Yet another forecast challenge will be the direction that this event is coming from. Since this will be coming in from the southeast it makes me wonder it we'll lose some of the moisture to has it is pushed over the mountains. This sometimes happens when we have those close calls from a southern tracking low pressure systems in the winter time. As the air is forced over the mountain there is a downward force on that rolls off of the mountain. This warms and drys the air. So when that happens some moisture gets swallowed up and it cuts back on rainfall totals. However, in this case, it is really going to take quite a bit of moisture to even get the atmosphere ready for any rainfall. So we can't afford to lose any of it to other weather issues!

The NHC has actually sent a recon aircraft inside of this low to see if it has any tropical characteristics and come to find out it does. If it can get that organized then I am not as worried about losing some of the moisture. Again, another forecast challenge! Here's what the NHC has said about this low!

A RECENTLY COMPLETED AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ALONG WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT
250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS NOT ACQUIRED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED TO NORTH AND WEST AND ARE
LARGELY UNRELATED TO THE SMALL CIRCULATION SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT.
THIS STRUCTURE IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF AN EXTRATROPICAL WEATHER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL
FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS. 

Here are some graphics.

This is the WRF on Friday evening around supper time or for many FOOTBALL TIME! If you notice here the moisture is right on top of eastern Kentucky. I think what this ends up being is more like a scattering of showers rather than widespread rainfall. Now let's check on some of the others.

These two haven't looked like this all week long, but I am sure glad that they are finally running nearly the same it moisture placement, high & low positions, thickness. So this pleases me to see this run looking like it does right now. I'll keep my 30% chance of rain for Friday night and a 20% chance on Saturday.

The rest of the 7-Day period will have some interesting odds and ends. By the middle to end of next week I don't think highs will make it out of the low 70s. The "Cool" question will be the overnight lows. Some data suggests that we could  see temperatures drop like a rock at night. A trough could begin to dig into Kentucky and several other states around us. What that will mean is that cool air from Canada will be knocking on your door and Jack Frost may be nipping at your nose!

I know that you can't see it so I will just go a head and tell you. This run of the GFS wants to take surface temps down to the 35-40 degree range on Thursday morning. This is an earlier run and the data has since changed. I just wanted you to see exactly how close we really are to these cold temperatures and the invasion that could follow! To be fair I'll post the most recent run here below.

This really isn't much warmer, it does show that cool temps will be around. This range is closer to the 40-45 degree area. Which is still pretty cool in my book. With this being a week out I'll have to monitor this a while longer before making a major decision on anything. So there is still plenty of time to tweak any of these numbers.

Finally, I mentioned a tropical update when I wrote my post early Wednesday morning. So here's also something to take a look at for the long term.

TC Activity

You see two highlighted areas here. One is our low and if you notice, it has a high probabilty of becoming Tropical within the next 48 hours. If it develops I think that will happen much sooner than the latter part of the 48 Hour Outlook.

You also have the second disturbance that could also become tropical within the next 48 hours. Here's what some of the models are saying about this.

What you see here is potential tracks for the low sitting off of the east coast. So if this actaully becomes tropical or sub-tropical we can get a handle on where it might be going. The CMC's path would be best for the folks around here by giving us a better chance at some rainfall. There is a lot of inconsistency here though and that makes it very confusing.
 
There is another one out there and it will have more time for development.
What do you think about a tropical storm running at New York City dead on?!?! Well the last few days of these runs have been pointing it in that direction or very close. With there being so many days left I don't think I'll jump on-board completely with anything until I see true tropical development!
 
FINALLY... some exciting weather to blog about! Look for more very soon! Thursday's post will be my do or die post... I plan on putting a final seal of approval on the tricky Friday temperatures.
 
C-Ya Bye
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