Rain is literally knocking on our door as I post this entry. The clouds associated with the low that has developed off the coast are working their way into Kentucky. The unfortunate thing with this system is the fact that there isn't a lot of moisture associated with it and the models have tried to indicate that there would be plenty. Not the case now that I see what it is doing after moving inland.
After seeing how it is affecting Virginia and the Carolinas... I am thinking that highs will only reach the low 70s today. Though... the farther west you go I think the better off you are going to be with the temps. It should actually be a few degrees warmer for folks heading out to London to the World Chicken Festival, perhaps in the upper 70s Thanks to the clouds that will be here and then you factor in that chance of rain. It will also get a little windy from time to time so expect it to feel a little cooler around those breezes. Expect the same thing on Saturday with a 30% chance of rain and temps held in the low 70s for afternoon and evening highs.
Bottom line: this round of rain won't be the blessing we were needing to really dent the drought. Don't get me wrong... any little bit puts us one step closer in the right direction, but we need some serious rain and we need it soon!
The WRF is showing very little moisture for Friday night. So any shower activity will be minimal! Especially with the low being in the position that it is in here.
The GFS is trying to paint the same picture that the WRF is and that picture keeps the heavier rains out of Kentucky, So basically just a teaser for the folks in eastern Kentucky. I do feel the closer you are to the West Virginia or Virginia border the better off you are going to be with this low. Of course the totals aren't going to be impressive, again, anything is better than nothing!
Saturday shares the same bleak outlook for rain.The low will be rolling up the coast and keeping us under the clouds. The rain will be the only thing that it won't be spreading enough of into Kentucky.
What you see above is the GFS for Saturday night. Sure you are seeing some green on Kentucky, but I think that ends up being more clouds than anything else.
The WRF has the rain already out the region long before this time frame. I just wanted to throw this up there so you could see how different they are now treating this system here lately. The two of these models had gotten together and agreed on a lot... not now!
GFS Total Precip this weekend
WRF total weekend rainfall
The one thing that both models agree on is that the western sections of our coverage area stand the best chance to remain dry. I am not happy about this since southern Kentucky graduated from Moderate Drought up to Severe Drought this week. Many of the rainfall totals I have for this area are near 10 inches behind normal.
The jump from 0.6% of Kentucky being in Severe Drought to 18% would normally be a shock, but I have been expecting to see something like this each time I look at the updated drought status map.
Now for something that is a little less serious and much more exciting for a person that loves the true feelings of Fall. When Fall arrives we all know that cooler shots of air that chill you to the bone happen all of the time. I am thinking we have one coming next week! It will be one that really gets your attention!
Once again the Surface temps are looking very cool to start the day off on Thursday. The temperature contour you see right on top of Kentucky is the 40-45 degree range. It has been running this chilly for a couple of days now. So far, many places have dropped off into the 40s for short periods of time. This should be the first widespread chiller we've seen in a while.
I'll be out at the World Chicken Festival in London all day Friday with the Guest Weather Map at my side. I'll also be LIVE on First At Four and Mountain News at Six with the weather forecast. Actually, I will have company in the six o'clock show... our entire newscast will be broadcast LIVE from London. So make sure you swing by and rub Steve Hensley's head for luck!