I can honestly say that I am really enjoying these really warm days and I am a Fall Heat Hater! It's a new club I recently started... wanna join? :) I am ready to wake up on a CHILLY Saturday afternoon and stick my head out the door and say... "No way no how am I going outside today!" Well this has happened a couple of times so far, but not nearly enough. We will soon hit the mid-point of the month and that will hopefully lead us into the real chills. And right on cue... that appears to be happening.
During the Summer months my chatter about cold fronts gets cut back quite a bit. The reason behind that is that cold fronts don't make significant southern penetration in the Summer. It all gets going again during the Fall, Winter, and Spring! Sure we have them in the summer, but not quite as many! As for the front that is getting ready to run across Kentucky... it will make what we have come to know of this week seem like a distant memory.
Highs will top out in the 70s to 80s on Wednesday and then on Thursday it starts slipping. Highs will fall into the low to mid 70s at that point. By Friday they will have fallen nearly 20 degrees from highs posted earlier this week. Overnight lows will now represent the highs we'll see. Lately, we have been bottoming out in the 50s or 60s. That will be the range for our highs by Friday. You know what that means to our lows... CHILLY!!! The coldest and driest air won't arrive until Saturday night. You'll see what I am talking about when you awake on Sunday morning with frost on the grass or your car. So lows dive into the 30s that night. I am debating my call for overnight lows here. I am not doubting that it will be cold... I am debating how cold it will end up! I have some time to tweak those numbers and my friends I am afraid that I will be tweaking a little each day. I will say this... the valley locations could get a real feel for the cold that night. Lows in those locations could dip all the way down into the lower 30s. That's strictly speculation right now... just keep it in mind!
If you are looking for moisture out of this system... you might just be out of luck! This is the WRF Thursday evening and my friends this is the most organized it looks for eastern Kentucky. The other images have lighter moisture with even some dry areas around us! The bulk of this energy bypasses Kentucky and shoots across the Great Lakes region. So this is the best the WRF has to offer..
How about the GFS here below? At the same time as the WRF above it is showing the same thing... very little moisture here in eastern Kentucky. What I am showing you in these two images is the most action we see according to these models.
I am searching for a decent round of precip so why not throw up the Canadian? Nope! This is dryer than some of the others I have posted here for you! The one thing they all have in common so far is timing of the front and where that main energy will be located at by Thursday evening.
The UK checks out with the GFS & WRF and has the best amount of moisture over eastern Kentucky Thursday evening.
What do all of these models above have in common?
- Frontal timing looks really good to me. Meaning: Temps begin to really fall on Friday.
- Moisture is light or nonexistent for the time period.
- All have a pretty strong high settling in to our north.
There are more minuscule things about these models, but we won't go into all that!
Finally, here is the real cold shot that arrives on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temps dip into the 30-35 degree range here.
I'll have more coming tomorrow!