As I have mentioned a couple of times so far... we have a decent shot of rain later this week. It keeps looking better and better to me. In my last post I didn't want to go all out on this early data, but now I might begin to buy the total package. For those of you wondering about your Thursday... DON'T!!! It looks like it will stay on the dry side and possibly just barely cool during the afternoon hours. In all honesty, temps will hang around the average high for this part of October. Skies should stay on the sunny side for most of the day and then the pre-frontal clouds arrive later on in the day.
Let's look a little more closely at your Friday. I know a lot of you have football Friday night plans and you don't want to sit through the rain at some of your games. Folks we really need that rain whether it comes on Friday Or Wednesday... the sooner the better.
A low, that I have watched develop over the last few days, is slowly bringing a cold front into Kentucky. That front and some rain will arrive here by sometime on Friday afternoon. If the area of precipitation stays in tact and the coverage area is large enough... then we should be in for an overall wet day. The model data isn't really taking into consideration how dry the air around us currently is and that can be a huge factor. Just looking at the data has me very pleased... if the data can truly come to pass then we'll get a little much needed rainfall.
The WRF above shows some enhancement due to some energy passing right over eastern Kentucky. That could work to our advantage by keeping the showers together and the rainfall intensity at a reasonable rate.
There are some differences between the GFS & the WRF, but both have the rain over eastern Kentucky at the same time period and both keep a nice coverage & intensity rate right over the region.
The Canadian has more of a tilt than the other two, but it does have the rainfall right here in our region with very similar characteristics as the other two.
I could go on and show you more models... the catch is each one has very similar timing when compared to the others.
Now how about a look into next week. I was sitting at home eating an early morning snack at around 5am Wednesday morning (just wrapped up Halo) when I got a text message from our Rob Hopkins. It said "Holy Smokes... snow next week?" I hadn't seen any data that had suggested that up until that run that he was looking at. We did get on the same page though and now I am having trouble even considering it... yeah that's right.... the guy who has let his love for snow steer his minor forecasts in the past. I don't want to make a hasty decision. SO I WON't YET!!!!!! Here's some data that you might find interesting though!
It's hard to see due to size restrictions on the blog... but GREEN = RAIN BLUE = SNOW
I am not sold just yet and I may never be on this issue, however, if the trend continues I could very well drift over the "Flake Side"