Well First Off... HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I hope all of you have had a very enjoyable holiday and I also hope that each of you will be ready for yet another mild day to round out the week. We are on the right side, both literally and figuratively speaking, of an approaching cold front. A front will swing through here on Friday night and take a bite out of our temperatures. It's only a small bite at first. There's another waiting off to our northwest that will bring a really cold shot back to Kentucky.
Moisture slips into Kentucky on Sunday evening/night. This moisture will be at the mercy of an area of low pressure that looks to develop in the coming days. The exact location of that low will really determine what kind of a situation really happens. I feel very confident in saying that one heck of a storm is going to develop. I am talking about some strong winds blowing the snow all over the place. We could actually get in on some of this action.
Below you will see several images from the GFS. It has been a little back and forth here lately and that means that there isn't a high amount of confidence associated with it yet. However, I have noticed that it is coming around lately. One of the key things you need to pay attention to is the solid pink line and the moisture. When that 540 line sinks pretty far below Kentucky that is a great indicator that it will be all snow. There are a couple of other rules when trying to use the thickness lines, but we won't get into that here!
This is the GFS on Sunday afternoon. You see a great source of moisture to our south east. This looks to pump moisture back into the states. This includes Kentucky. While the low sitting right above us is bringing in the cold air necessary to make the change over to snow.
Later that evening you actually see some heavier "moisture" beginning to show up in parts of our region.
Same situation is going on here in Kentucky. The isobars are trying to tighten up and once the low moves further north we'll see our winds pick up as the isobars tighten up over eastern Kentucky. If snow is falling... this could mean some blowing snow!
In this frame... there is some energy exchanging going on. I actually think this exchange will occur long before this period of time. That will mean we'll have a pretty strong storm to deal with.
The snow will likely continue into the day on Monday. This is all still in the preliminary stages of this forecast. This is actually a period of time that I will be near my computer during the weekend and watching it very closely. I will have updates this weekend guiding you one way or the other.
PLEASE REMEMBER that it is still early and this model, like all of the others, can change in a heart beat and not look anything like this in a day. For that matter it might change significantly by next run. Be patient!
Just for fun... I will show you this.
Don't forget to read my long range winter outlook post!