Caldwell's 2008-2009 Winter Weather Outlook

I have had people asking for this since back in August. So now here it is... my honest opinion of what winter will be like in eastern Kentucky.

Let's get the housecleaning notes out in the open first.

  1. This is my opinion and much like any opinion on anything everybody has one. So some may disagree and some may agree. If you disagree and leave a comment I might delete it! HAHA
  2. I absolutely refuse to go into great detail on how I put this forecast together. If I start talking about analog years, La Nina or El Nino, Positive NAO or any other weather jargon I feel like you will get bored and dump me. HAHA!
  3. This forecast was put together by looking at the aforementioned items along with the Climate Forecast System.
  4. It's about 60% climatology, 30% experience, and 10% a mad love for snow! HAHA
  5. This is to be taken seriously for entertainment purposes only. This is only my second true long range winter forecast and I am working the kinks out. (heck I am still working out the day-to-day stuff)

December: Will have some serious outbreaks of some colder air. I don't think there will be enough activity going on for a huge snow maker in Kentucky. Some will be very close but no monster beating down the door. Temps will average below normal, but it will also be a below normal month for precipitation. That cuts into our snow totals.

January: Many of you probably have heard of a "January Thaw" well I am betting this will again be a January that will feature that especially towards the middle of the month. The activity could pick up though in the beginning and end of the month. That combined with some pretty cold air might give us some chances for some decent snowfall. Everything should be in place to make that happen. So it starts off cold, middles of the month will be above normal, and we'll fall back into the cold by the end. When it is all said and done though... it ends up being below average due to the extremely cold that will begin and end the month. Precipitation should be above normal and that could lead to the fun forecasts.

February: It's all about the cold for the shortest month we experience. I don't see any lengthy period of mild temps showing up this month. I think it starts cold and ends cold. Making the average temps for the month stay below normal which means pretty cold. The precip track looks to be on the active side. So again, we could have a decent chance for some snow around here. Precipitation will be above normal.

March: Since half of the month is winter we have to include it here. Plus we can't forget this month since it was the month that housed what many refer to as "The Storm Of The Century" and indeed that 1993 Blizzard was all of that and more. It appears that temps will begin to climb here. Bringing us out of the deep cold freeze from the previous months. Temps will probably range above normal for most of the month. Any shot we have at getting some late winter snow will occur while we are under the deep freeze at the beginning of the month. Precipitation will be near normal for this month.

Now for the final and most important call on the winter. The total accumulated snowfall by winter's end. Remember all of this snow will not be on the ground at the same time.

Highest Elevations: 26"-32"

Everyone else: 15"-23"

So there you have it... my second ever public attempt at a long-range forecast. It was all for fun and all for you guys! You are great and I appreciate each of you for reading this blog.

C-Ya Bye

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