It's Getting Tricky

Oh yeah, it is also pouring out there! This moisture moves through and gives us a really good soaking of rainfall. That's not the tricky part!

Rain has been my main focus since this past weekend when I noticed that the cold air that some of the models were projecting for this week had stopped projecting that. This week temps seemed to be right on track to stay above normal. Even more than I actually thought during beginning of my forecast for this period. Now comes something I didn't see until recently! Let's discuss everything else first.

The front will continue working across Kentucky on Wednesday. A couple of waves of energy move through and enhance our rainfall. There is a great possibility that we could end up with 1-3" of rain here in the next day or so. That can be positive and negative. The positive is that we are still in a drought and are in desperate need of rainfall. So this would be wonderful for that. The negative is that I am not sure if the ground can handle a lot of rain right now. Sure it warmed up for a couple of days... but it has been colder longer than warmer. Basically, the ground will still be on the hard side... meaning that runoff could be a little more likely. Creeks and streams could still fill up and water could become an issue. If this were the Spring or Summer I wouldn't worry as much. I am not overly concerned... just always looking at the possible negative that could throw everything out of whack! You might say I am a pessimist.


What I have posted above here is the GFS' take on precip through this round of rainfall. Not a bad amount could end up falling here!

Now for the twist that Hitchcock couldn't have seen coming. Let alone your old pal... ME!

I'll be honest... I have down played a significant snow for a few days now. The latest runs may have me eating my words... and I don't like eating my own words. So now I am playing catch up to the models. I noticed a few waves of energy riding along the front and keeping our chance of rain around. It had originally appeared that the bulk of the moisture would be out of here by the time the cold air arrived. Now there has been some flip flopping going on. The track of one of the lows is further west and that means moisture lingers around here and could allow for the cold punch to catch up. That's all fine and dandy... this happens all of the time. But what doesn't happen is having a system as moisture rich as this one has been. If the runs continue to move this westward then we could be in for a decent snow. However, if it moves too far westward it could keep our rain chances alive for a few more days.

I have watched models do this many times in the past. This is where remembering biases come into play. From my own bias playbook for models... I normally see this westward track a little earlier in the runs. I believe the jog to the west will happen and possibly leave us wide open for this snow potential. We'll be close to something... how much? I am not willing to tackle that just yet!

I am not saying I agree with what you are about to see... I am throwing it out there for your entertainment!

Just in case you find it hard to read the numbers on the graphic... that suggests between 2" and 12"

I'll have to see more runs before I go hog wild with this!

C-Ya Bye

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