It's Getting Tricky

Oh yeah, it is also pouring out there! This moisture moves through and gives us a really good soaking of rainfall. That's not the tricky part!

Rain has been my main focus since this past weekend when I noticed that the cold air that some of the models were projecting for this week had stopped projecting that. This week temps seemed to be right on track to stay above normal. Even more than I actually thought during beginning of my forecast for this period. Now comes something I didn't see until recently! Let's discuss everything else first.

The front will continue working across Kentucky on Wednesday. A couple of waves of energy move through and enhance our rainfall. There is a great possibility that we could end up with 1-3" of rain here in the next day or so. That can be positive and negative. The positive is that we are still in a drought and are in desperate need of rainfall. So this would be wonderful for that. The negative is that I am not sure if the ground can handle a lot of rain right now. Sure it warmed up for a couple of days... but it has been colder longer than warmer. Basically, the ground will still be on the hard side... meaning that runoff could be a little more likely. Creeks and streams could still fill up and water could become an issue. If this were the Spring or Summer I wouldn't worry as much. I am not overly concerned... just always looking at the possible negative that could throw everything out of whack! You might say I am a pessimist.


What I have posted above here is the GFS' take on precip through this round of rainfall. Not a bad amount could end up falling here!

Now for the twist that Hitchcock couldn't have seen coming. Let alone your old pal... ME!

I'll be honest... I have down played a significant snow for a few days now. The latest runs may have me eating my words... and I don't like eating my own words. So now I am playing catch up to the models. I noticed a few waves of energy riding along the front and keeping our chance of rain around. It had originally appeared that the bulk of the moisture would be out of here by the time the cold air arrived. Now there has been some flip flopping going on. The track of one of the lows is further west and that means moisture lingers around here and could allow for the cold punch to catch up. That's all fine and dandy... this happens all of the time. But what doesn't happen is having a system as moisture rich as this one has been. If the runs continue to move this westward then we could be in for a decent snow. However, if it moves too far westward it could keep our rain chances alive for a few more days.

I have watched models do this many times in the past. This is where remembering biases come into play. From my own bias playbook for models... I normally see this westward track a little earlier in the runs. I believe the jog to the west will happen and possibly leave us wide open for this snow potential. We'll be close to something... how much? I am not willing to tackle that just yet!

I am not saying I agree with what you are about to see... I am throwing it out there for your entertainment!

Just in case you find it hard to read the numbers on the graphic... that suggests between 2" and 12"

I'll have to see more runs before I go hog wild with this!

C-Ya Bye

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  • by Brandy Location: Elkhorn City Ky on Dec 10, 2008 at 06:40 PM
    Ohhh I hope we get a foot haha! My best friend said she would kiss you right on the lips if we get snow lol! Cant wait to hear another update!
  • by Julia Location: Langley on Dec 10, 2008 at 12:34 PM
    Hey Jim, I hope to see some snow. My youngest is 10 and had never seen enough snow to even sled on. That's a shame! So, I will keep my fingers crossed on this one.
  • by Tammy Location: Pike County on Dec 10, 2008 at 11:02 AM
    OOH...Let's keep our fingers crossed on this one. Surely, we will finally get something worth looking at. I'm sure the teachers and kids would like a slightly longer Christmas break!!
  • by Stephanie Location: Marrowbone on Dec 10, 2008 at 08:58 AM
    oh yeah, i was wondering the same thing. just exactly can we expect this snow?? LOL, soon i hope!!! hurry and blog on this some more Jim, Please. i call my mom everytime you put up a new blog because she can't get online to read them, and i read your blogs to her. it's a mother daugther thing...LOL. anyways, she can't wait to hear more on this snow. should we be going to the store anytime soon??!! take care jim!!!
  • by Charlotte Morgan Location: Harlan & Leslie Counties on Dec 10, 2008 at 08:36 AM
    Jim,I really enjoy watching your weather forcasts, you always seem to find some humor in something involving the weather. I travel across Pine Mountain (from Leslie to Harlan on Hwy 421) everyday and have done so for about 10 or 11 years. I love the snow and miss the significant amounts we use to receive when I was a child. Now that I have 3 boys of my own I can hardly remember seeing them able to build a snow man. I hope you can give us more details on the winter weather possiblity reference above. See ya on the 6 and 11 o'clock news.
  • by anna Location: paintsville on Dec 10, 2008 at 08:19 AM
  • by Andy Location: London on Dec 9, 2008 at 11:26 PM
    I could only hope that we get this much. I would love to see a good snow like this. We haven't seen this much in years around here. I just hope that the rain doesn't leave a lot of ice around before the snow come. I love snow but Ice is bad for everybody. If we get this much then let God watch over us and let people use common sense when they are out if needed.
  • by Sandy Location: Hazard on Dec 9, 2008 at 08:44 PM
    This would really be beautiful around the mountains this time of the year. But, I think its still to early to do the milk and bread run. I will however, be sure to keep the camera on charge. Keep up the good work Jim, and find me a WHITE CHRISTMAS! I would really like the kids in my class to experience just one good snowfall (12"-18") like I used to see in the late 70's early 80's. I want to build a real SNOWMAN!
  • by Stephanie Location: Marrowbone Elkhorn City on Dec 9, 2008 at 07:50 PM
    Okay Jim, now you've got my hopes up!! don't let me down!! I sooo hope we get about a foot of snow..LOL!! i can't wait to hear more on this, keep the blogs coming. have a goodnite and God bless!!
  • by Derrick Location: Grayson, Ky on Dec 9, 2008 at 07:50 PM
    Oh my... are the chances good for this happening? And, when would this happen? Early Thursday morning into Friday?


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