I know many of you are excited after Tuesday's post... but what you have to remember is that the model I showed you was a possible scenario. It was certainly one that I would like to see... because I love snow.
Let's get to the first round of this. There is a Flood Watch posted for a few counties beginning at 7am and ending at 7pm. Some areas picked up around 2" of rain. Remember in my last post FLASHBACK TO TUESDAY'S POST: The negative is that I am not sure if the ground can handle a lot of rain right now. Sure it warmed up for a couple of days... but it has been colder longer than warmer. Basically, the ground will still be on the hard side... meaning that runoff could be a little more likely. Creeks and streams could still fill up and water could become an issue. If this were the Spring or Summer I wouldn't worry as much. This is the big reason that any high water could be possible here over the next day or so. You factor that in with maybe another inch or two of rain and we might have problems. Here's the official bulletin:
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING KENTUCKY COUNTIES...BELL...CLAY...
* THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM ON THURSDAY.
Now for the meat and potatoes of this crazy forecast. By the way... anyone traveling into central Kentucky on Thursday could run into some FREEZING RAIN. The NWS Louisville gang has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory through 12pm Thursday.
Our wintry weather looks like it will wait until later on in the day to make its appearance around here. During the afternoon looks to be the primary time for the moisture to start make its transition from rain to a mix or snow. We might actually have to deal with somewhat of a wintry mix for a little while during the change over.
The cold air wins and we will likely see snow during the afternoon and evening hours. This last up through the overnight and eventually gets out of town. Now the question is... will we see that amazing snowfall predicition that the model was highlighting yesterday? Probably not! The model had the right idea, it just jumped the gun a little bit. That's why we have to keep looking over all of the runs to make sure that the one was just a bad run. Though the overall trend has the moisture in place it just doesn't look like it falls in cold air that long. This system has plenty of moisture so if the cold air got in place for a long enough time frame... yeah what you saw in last night's post could very well happen.
I am going to attempt to make a call on snowfall here.
So this shows 1"4" and this is more like it! The run that shot up those totals was just a little overly agressive. These totals are a little more likely to happen than what we saw last post. We still have some time and this low could flip and flop! Hold on for a bumpy ride. Remember there will also be a mixture of everything coming at us. Snow sleet and freezing rain will also be thrown in the mix. That too would cut back on snowfall totals. Most areas will be closer to the 1 inch mark with snowfall. However, more could certainly fall in some locations.
We'll wait for a possible advisory coming up on Thursday.