We have a couple of things working for us here... Temps climb at night and moisture is moving out. As we all know... temps normally fall at night. That's not going to be the case for this overnight forecast. We'll see them slowly jump up a couple of degrees. Nothing major, but it will keep any left over moisture on the wet side as opposed to frozen.
The latest wintry system is on the move out. It's not the last system to come rolling into Kentucky this week though. We are entering a pretty wet period this week. This has been one of the wettest streaks I have seen in a while. Several of you have sent emails saying how high your creeks are or that the river is swollen. Now we need a break from all of the precip and allow this moisture to get absorbed rather than stack up on all of the other moisture that has been adding up.
Rain should stick around through parts of your Wednesday. It won't be a wall-to-wall kind of system... just some isolated showers moving across the region. The next chance to actually see blue skies won't occur until Thursday. On our 7-Day Forecast I have included at least a 20% chance of rain, but that was thrown in there due to another system that makes its way in here by Friday. The speed may increase a little... so that could mean showers arrive on Thursday. For the most part I think we stay relatively dry and of course temps trend milder for the week.
The weekend will feature two different systems. One will be the aforementioned Thursday chance of rain. This system has some decent moisture with it, but it won't likely have enough cold air to raise any red flags. This one works through here during the day on Friday and into early Saturday.
Here comes the first one. Below is the Canadian model and its position of the low.
At the same time the GFS is trying to pus this system through a little more quickly. However, these two are running very close to one another on the timing of the low.
Both have this round of precip moving out by Saturday afternoon.
The more interesting of the two systems coming our way will arrive on Sunday. It will pack a punch with some significantly colder air spilling back into Kentucky. The question here is... will it be interesting?
Check these out!
GFS Late Sun Early/Mon This shows mainly rain for the time period. After this front blasts through it will change the moisture on the back side over to snow.
The GEM (Canadian) is a little more aggressive with the cold air and its interaction with the moisture.
Early next week should be really cold with highs probably diving into the 20s & 30s.
On the air I am going to begin talking about White Christmas chances on Thursday, but on here I am going to begin talk about that right now. Christmas is still over a week away so I won't begin setting anything in stone. I am only going to show you that if Christmas happened tomorrow... well...I would put all on money on a White Christmas! I AM NOT IN ANYWAY SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN... this is just a fun look into what I will be dealing with over the next few days. Because the image you are about to see will change many times between now and Christmas.
This is a snapshot of Christmas Eve. All the precip you see over Kentucky would most likely be snow if this comes to pass. I will be watching this very closely and start issuing White Christmas chances in each new post until Christmas. In tomorrow's post I will include more data on what the technical definition of a White Christmas is and I'll show you how we stack up against history.