Milder Temps & I Begin My White Christmas Forecast

One thing I feel very confident about, regarding the title of this post, is the milder temps. We'll feel some on Thursday and even warmer on Friday.

Two systems will be moving across Kentucky over the next 5 days. Each will bring precipitation... but each will be very different. Let's examine the two systems.

System 1

It appears that the first system will have plenty of moisture, but lacking in the cold air department. Timing has very little to do with anything with this one. If it arrives day or night it will still produce rain. Temps will climb in the warm sector of the low and this keeps everything rain. There will be some damage done to the temps, but only a little. Inside that warm sector I believe temps will dance all around or maybe with 60 degrees. Generally, highs will stay in the 40s to around 50 both Sat & Sun after the front moves through.

WRF Friday Afternoon

GFS Friday afternoon.

Both of these have sped up the system and basically have it out of here by early Saturday morning. I'll agree... This means most of Saturday will likely be on the dry side.

System 2

The second system will leave a deeper impression into our weather pattern. At least for a couple of days. This will have some truly cold air associated with it and has the potential to bring wintry weather back to eastern Kentucky. The arrival time looks to be Sunday afternoon. Highs will climb into the 40s earlier that day and quickly fall into the 20s by late that evening. This packs little more of a punch, but it is only temporary.

GFS Sunday afternoon

Canadian Sunday afternoon.

The Canadian has less moisture than the GFS but bot have pretty similar timing on cold air.

"I'm dreaming of a White Christmas" Though I may not be dreaming about one at all. If tomorrow could be Christmas Eve and the models were still showing what they are showing... I'd put you on high White Christmas Alert. The problem is.. there could be some flip flopping between now and then.

I am a little absent minded at times.. well all of the time... and I can't remember but maybe a couple of Christmas holidays that were snow white. Granted... I am not as old as most of you think and I haven't seen too many, but I really can't remember many at all.

Before we talk White Christmas... you have to learn what it really means. This is how NOAA defines a White Christmas

A white Christmas is defined as an observation of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground sometime during Christmas day or night. The snow does NOT need to fall on Christmas day. Also, the snow does not need to last for the entire day. 1 inch of snow Christmas morning can melt by noon and you still have a white Christmas.
So what are the odds of a white Christmas? Of course, for any given year, the probability can be altered by the current weather pattern prevailing during late December, but the use of climatology allows a first guess. If over the last 100 years, there have been 20 Christmases deemed "white," then the probability is one in five or 20 percent. Now that figure may be optimistic since it is acknowledged that the first half of the 20th Century was colder than most of the later decades across the North American continent, and perhaps the most recent climate normals should be used to determine a probability.
The report on the probability of a white Christmas in the United States was written by meteorologists Neal Lott, Tom Ross, and Matthew Sittel with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The database used in the study was the previous climate normals period 1961-1990. (I can find no similar analysis using the latest normals.)

The analysis from the National Climate Atlas of the statistical probability (in percent) of at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day can be visualized in the map given below for the contiguous states. (Probabilities are high for most of Alaska and nil for Hawaii, except at the higher elevations of Mauna Loa.

I am going to rate the WC chances here on a very simple scale.

  • Yes - Snow On The Ground
  • Yes - Snow Flying Around
  • No - Mainly Rain
  • No - Very Dry & Mild/Warm

We are still pretty far out, but if I had to make the call today I'd say

Yes - Snow Flying Around.

I am even leaning towards on the ground!!!! It'll get more interesting as I update this daily.

C-Ya Bye


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