Two systems will be moving across Kentucky over the next 5 days. Each will bring precipitation... but each will be very different. Let's examine the two systems.
It appears that the first system will have plenty of moisture, but lacking in the cold air department. Timing has very little to do with anything with this one. If it arrives day or night it will still produce rain. Temps will climb in the warm sector of the low and this keeps everything rain. There will be some damage done to the temps, but only a little. Inside that warm sector I believe temps will dance all around or maybe with 60 degrees. Generally, highs will stay in the 40s to around 50 both Sat & Sun after the front moves through.
WRF Friday Afternoon
GFS Friday afternoon.
Both of these have sped up the system and basically have it out of here by early Saturday morning. I'll agree... This means most of Saturday will likely be on the dry side.
The second system will leave a deeper impression into our weather pattern. At least for a couple of days. This will have some truly cold air associated with it and has the potential to bring wintry weather back to eastern Kentucky. The arrival time looks to be Sunday afternoon. Highs will climb into the 40s earlier that day and quickly fall into the 20s by late that evening. This packs little more of a punch, but it is only temporary.
GFS Sunday afternoon
Canadian Sunday afternoon.
The Canadian has less moisture than the GFS but bot have pretty similar timing on cold air.
"I'm dreaming of a White Christmas" Though I may not be dreaming about one at all. If tomorrow could be Christmas Eve and the models were still showing what they are showing... I'd put you on high White Christmas Alert. The problem is.. there could be some flip flopping between now and then.
I am a little absent minded at times.. well all of the time... and I can't remember but maybe a couple of Christmas holidays that were snow white. Granted... I am not as old as most of you think and I haven't seen too many, but I really can't remember many at all.
Before we talk White Christmas... you have to learn what it really means. This is how NOAA defines a White Christmas
The analysis from the National Climate Atlas of the statistical probability (in percent) of at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day can be visualized in the map given below for the contiguous states. (Probabilities are high for most of Alaska and nil for Hawaii, except at the higher elevations of Mauna Loa.
I am going to rate the WC chances here on a very simple scale.
We are still pretty far out, but if I had to make the call today I'd say
Yes - Snow Flying Around.
I am even leaning towards on the ground!!!! It'll get more interesting as I update this daily.