An approching mid-latitude cyclone (lol just wanted to use the technical term for low pressure system) will bring us three things on Friday. Rain, warmth, and wind will all be heading our way. You'll notice the rain before anything else. Or maybe you won't since all we have had here lately has been the wet stuff. The heaviest of the rainfall will be to our north. It looks like it will stretch across northern Kentucky and into Indiana & Ohio. Our rainfall amounts shouldn't be off the charts with the passing of the first weekend system.
You see here above total precip through early Saturday. Just as I mentioned above in the previous paragraph... we stay on the lighter end of the rainfall accumulation.
The daytime highs will get a real jolt up the thermometer on Friday and only be knocked down a few degrees on Saturday. I think many locations could reach the 60 degree mark easily on Friday. Especially, those locations in southern Kentucky! When Sunday's system gets here though... these mild temps will take a hike. There will be some recovering that happens, but not a 60 degree recovery.
This run of the WRF suggest that temps will be in the 60-65 degree range all across eastern Kentucky. I don't think that is likely for all of us... it will be close... but other factors will keep it somewhat cooler!
Just for fun... this is how Sunday afternoon looks! That model has 30-35 here and the colder air north of Kentucky will come swinging on in later that afternoon. I am leaning towards 20s by later afternoon into the early evening hours.
Winds will begin picking up during the day on Friday. So don't be too surprised when you walk out and the winds begins to howl. Sustained winds probably between 15-20mph and gusts even higher will be possible. Sorry... no flashy graphic for the wind...lol
After watching parts of Kentucky slip deeper and deeper into the drought... I knew that it had to get better after recent rain, sleet, and snow. I wasn't sure how much of a difference would show up. I was actually surprised to see how much better off we are. I guess when some loctions pick-up around 5 or 6 inches of rain that's what happens to a drought.
The chart above shows you percentage of Kentucky under specific stages of drought. There is also a comparison between last week and this week. Last week extreme drought was at 16.5% and this week 0.0%!!!! The others went through some pretty solid changes as well... just refer to the chart!
Remember... when I issue a 7-Day Forecast confidence goes down the further out the forecast goes. There are numerous things that can change a forecast around drastically. With Christmas Day being a that 7th day in the forecast it makes nailing down an accurate White Christmas forecast difficult. Though I will have my latest thoughts on that potential.. despite the fact that there is still some uncertainty.
A pretty strong low moves right over Kentucky on Christmas Eve. It has enough moisture and cold air (AT THIS POINT) to lay some snow on the ground. Temps for Christmas day would keep that snow on the ground, but no new snow would be possible. My second on this forecast is:
Yes - Snow on the ground
This could change depending on the track of the low. It has started to change a little and if it keeps changing I might begin to remove this chance. However, that run could have been one of those off the wall kind of runs and the track could straighten back up. I'll start putting more confidence in this part of my post probably on Sunday or Monday.