Eastern Kentucky Weather

Hmmm...... Going Against The Grain

Sorry... this update is later than I wanted it to be... but as I have said many times before... it's better to be accurate than first. However, if you are first & accurate then you have yourself a winner. Stop rambling!!!

I have noticed a few comments about including a legend with some of the graphics and I will say I am sorry. You must be first time readers and I don't want to disappoint because I normally include one. Also.. it was 6am and I was dog tired and barely got those maps up so I was struggling!

There was a NWS conference call that pulled all media and other folks together for a discussion about the looming weather system. First, I hate conference calls. Second, I was already up to my elbows in trying to figure this whole thing out. Finally, I didn't need any distractions around that time... I was already second guessing myself so I didn't need other opinions really messing with my head.

To "Go Against The Grain" is basically what I am going to do here. It's a risky move, but I have to do it! It feels like the right thing to do. Some will just go along to cover themselves... I am not going to do that  tonight!

12am-5am Tuesday: Snow will slide into most of eastern Kentucky. It will be quickly followed by the mixing line of frezzing rain & sleet. I believe this will be the period where we accumulate most of our ice. Maybe add another couple of hours on the end just to be safe. That will hang around for a couple of hours before it looks like surface temps will climb above freezing. This opens the door for some rain.

5:01am-noon Tuesday: The bulk of this time will be full of the the colors of the radar, The rain, mix line, and snow. The rain will spend a great deal of time along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. It will probably last beyond the time I have listed. The mix line will set up shop between I-64 and the Hal Rogers Parkway. It will likely meander north and south slightly during this time frame. It could even be pushed even further to the north and keep most of us in rain for a lengthy little time period. Thus, the reason we have a flood watch that will go into effect Tuesday morning. This part of the system could very well end up as a widespread rain event! I wouldn't be surprised if we had more than 3 inches of rain in some areas. Locations along or north of I-64 will see mainly snow throughout the day!

Noon-midnight: Most areas from north to south will begin to see the change over to snow. Some of this could be pretty heavy at times and really add up considering the nature of this system. Some of you will go from no snow to a couple of inches.

Midnight-Weds PM: Everyone is seeing snow and the totals will range from 1" in the south to 8" in northern Kentucky. Many of us could see up to 6" by the time it is all said and done on Wednesday. Well see some moisture come in off the Lakes that will keep our snow chances alive. Especially, here in eastern Kentucky.

This won't be the end of the snow chances... I expect this to continue through the weekend. Not the major storm... but other disturbances.

These are the graphics I made with the weather computer! I usually slack off on detail for areas outside of eastern Kentucky so what you see out west isn't what's expected out there. I have mentioned the GFS, GEM, WRF, EURO, and many others... I call these the CALDWELL M-1... the first part is self explanatory. The M is Mind and one is just simply the Number one...lol... So some could read it as CALDWELL's MIND is #1   LOL

The ice accumulation will occur early Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon. The snow will pick up again on Tuesday evening and last through Wednesday. The Winter Storm Warning  runs through Wednesday morning... however... the snow will continue past the expiration time. It will just go below the warning status.

Just remember... this situation can change and change in a hurry! That's why I have included such wide areas for the potential impact. This is one of the hardest systems to forecast. If the track changes by just a few miles it will throw my entire forecast off! Please be gentle :)

Here's warning specific information from the NWS:

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BY NOON AND THEN MIX WITH RAIN AT
TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BY
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
2 TO 6 INCHES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF ICE FROM
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED. DOWNED POWER LINES...TREES... OR TREE
LIMBS...COULD RESULT FROM THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE. RESIDENTS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL COULD ALSO BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

THE EXACT AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...SO BE SURE TO LISTEN FOR
LATER UPDATES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

*********************************************************************

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO ALSO BRING A THREAT OF FLOODING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE A
COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF FLOODING...WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS. EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND THE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO
ANY MELTING OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BRINGS THE THREAT OF FLOODING
TO MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271200-
/O.CON.KJKL.FA.A.0002.090127T1200Z-090128T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1122 PM EST MON JAN 26 2009

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH
  CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ELLIOTT...
  ESTILL...MENIFEE AND POWELL. IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON
  AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY...
  PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST
  KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...FLOYD...HARLAN...
  JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...LETCHER...MAGOFFIN...
  MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE.

* FROM 7 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS
  TONIGHT...REACHING TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WEATHER
  SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN
  KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THIS
  PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  KENTUCKY WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAL
  FLOODING WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
  ADDITIONALLY...AREA RIVERS WILL EVENTUALLY RUN HIGH WEDNESDAY
  INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
  BASIN AND THE KENTUCKY RIVER BASIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
  OF SEEING FLOODING.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

This Somerset weathercam should update every few minutes. I chose it since it provides one of the best views of a downtown in our viewing area.

C-Ya Bye

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