Many of you are sitting at home warm and comfortable, just as I am sitting right here in the warm and cozy weather center. There are nearly a half-million people in Kentucky without the luxuries that we are blessed with. I am not and never have been a fan of the ice that comes along with the wintry systems. Now many of you can relate to what I am talking about since this ice has throat-punched the commonwealth.
I am very appreciative for the thousands of people that have really been looking at this blog for some kind of guidance through this whole ordeal. I do enjoy writing these... I'll enjoy it more when I can post 3 a week and not miss a beat like the HAZY,HOT, & HUMID summer posts. I am not going to dodge the fact that man of you didn't see any snow. To do that would be gutless, spineless, and yellow-bellied! I refuse to fall under any of those categories so let's get it out in the open. Go back to Hmmm...... Going Against The Grain and you will see how I broke the storm down before it ever moved in to eastern or southern Kentucky. As I have mentioned.. I am not happy with my timing, but as far as where the mixing line would set up and spend most of the day, who would see mainly rain, and where the bulk of the snow would happen each were covered and accurate for the first part of this storm. The second part I can't give you any excuse! It all looked wonderful when I finally went to sleep... but somewhere in the night the warm air had other plans. The last couple of days when I would look over surface temps... the data kept trying to push temps into the upper 50s. I didn't buy into that and this was my biggest mistake! I thought the cold air would drop in here like a ton of bricks. It didn't happen and the moisture evaded the coldest air in many locations. However, there were many that did get exactly what I called for and you can read that in some of the comments posted.
How would I rate myself on this one?!?!?! 75% overall... NOT 30%!
Had some rough comments that I had to reject and one that was absolutely ridiculous! All I ask is that you keep these comments clean for the people that will read over them. Trust me... there are young and impressionable children that read these posts and the last thing I want them do is pick up some terrible phrase from this blog! I often kid about rejecting those that criticize... but I never reject any of those. The lesson here is keep comments clean or you might get banned from posting anything on our webchannel!
Again, I am so sorry for those of you that have been tasteful with your comments and emails. Seems like you always have a couple that ruin everything for everyone!
Now that I have that off of my chest... let's talk about the next few days.
If you have looked at any other location for weather that is located north of here you will notice that single digit lows are in the forecast. That might be misleading for us though. With all of the snow and ice on the ground and if you factor in clearing skies... well... you might just have those single digit lows. Remember, snow works like a refrigerator once it is laying on the ground. The air around it becomes much much colder. I think some nights a head will dip into the low and mid teens. As for places in our region that got the snow and ice... you could see those really cold lows as well!
A couple of smaller systems will run towards Kentucky on Friday & Saturday. It doesn't appear that there will be much moisture to work with so let's not get to excited about a blanket of white!
I know why some of you came back to read this post and you wanted to see if I would address the possibility of next week's storm potential. I am not too excited just yet! A lesson I have learned from working with the long-range models is that the will flip, flop, fowalp... whatever fowalp means?!?!? lol One that I watch very closely is the GFS. You'll hear this guy and that gal and many others say you can't trust it... I trust it because I have learned to deal with its biases. The GFS has this during the latest available run.
This is Monday evening. Notice that the low is located over South Carolina. By Friday or Saturday if its track hasn't shifted more westerly then we might have something to talk about. Until I see more runs I will not make any huge prediction. Let's just imagine that this stays the course that it is on... all I can say is "Katie... bar the door!"