Very Unsettled Pattern

We are getting closer and closer to the weekend and the next big push of rain. It's this system that has us all a little on edge.

This week, anytime anyone says anything about more rain... most people begin asking God to keep the rain away. If you are one of these people then you are not alone! With this round of showers & storms coming our way we all have to prepare ourselves somehow.

So what's going to happen around here? In a situation where every little drop of rain matters... it makes this job stressful! Back in the winter when we were talking about snow and how much we would likely see it always came easier. That can be a very dangerous time too, but this takes the cake! I have never had to blog about flooding of this nature. I have been around for quite a few events and put together forecasts, but this is a little different since I am usually a little more open here!

Let's Dive In

As I write these words it looks like all of the high water has receded and only the damage remains. The ground is still full of water and run-off will still be quick to happen if the right amount of rain begins to fall. Again, I go back to my references I have made here in the last few posts... again here is the same statement I keep copying and pasting in to these new posts! "I have seen just one thunderstorm dump 4" or more in less than one hour. So just imagine if we get that out of one or two storms. That could lead to a whole world of problems with the current saturation level of the ground." I made that statement in my post for May 5th called "Flood Watch For Good Reason" With the possibility of thunderstorms coming our way I just have to think that we could be hurting if a good rain producing storm comes along and lays enough rainfall behind.

As a whole here is what the model data is suggesting. Again... these do not handle specific thunderstorms very well at all! This is a good estimation for general rainfall throughout the system.

GFS Thru Sunday Evening

JMA - The Japanese model.

Canadian Model Thru Sunday evening.

I want you guys to realize that you can look at these until you are blue in the face... the fact is that these isolated storms can produce rainfall amounts that will be higher than the values you see here.  This is excellent guidance and I do put faith in these. You just have to know when to kick the habit and develop your own picture inside your head.

Thursday will be one to watch with the possibility of storms coming our way. Another big day that I am going to watch very closely will be Saturday. That's where we run into more thunderstorms.

C-Ya Bye

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