Here we are... just hours away from when the whole mess is about to begin. It has lost some of the endurance so that could mean that we wrap it up a little quicker, but that change to snow is still in the cards for our region.
Remember that the pink means the mix of snow & rain. You see it beginning early in the morning right along the KY/VA border. There will likely be a break in the action during the day and then the cold air returns late Saturday night and that will lead to another change from rain to snow.
The image above is near midnight Sunday. There you see the change again!
This will all wrap up by early Sunday morning. The rest of the day could feature some sunshine... not much... but some!
The cold temps will really roll into the region early on Monday morning. That will likely be the period where we see the good hard freeze!
Here's some historical snowfall accumulation data from the NWS.
Snow in October is rare in Eastern Kentucky, but not unheard of. Several locations oberseved snow falling on October 27, 2001. During this decade, snow has been observed at WFO Jackson on October 23, 2006, October 27, 2001, and October 27, 2008. Measurable snow in October is rather rare, but more common in the higher elevations above 2000 feet near the Virginia border. The following are records of the earliest first dates of measurable snow from across the region:
Now it;s time to respond to some comments you have posted.
Posted by: Tommy Location: Martin County
why are you working so many hours? 11pm,6am and too many other shifts. You need a snow break.
Tommy... Since Rob Hopkins left the station I have been covering his shift and mine. This shouldn't last too much longer though (I hope)
Posted by: Derek Location: Harlan County
Hey jim, thanks for the update. I agree with mark. it is hard to believe we are talking snow in october. I really hope this is a sign of things to come as winter progresses. I am anxious for the long range forecast. What is your opinion on a weakening ENSO, and do you think we will be affected by many Nor'easters. I am dying to know your take on all this. In your next post, give a hint on when your winter forecast is going to be released. Later
Derek... if we go by this... a snowy winter could be ruled out! I'm not seeing it that way. I'll go ahead and say this... winter looks interesting this year! Yes, that includes snow!!!! Yes, that includes cold! I'll have more details on the winter next month!