Just in case you haven't heard... we have a tropical system named Ida that will be crusing through the deep south. I am left scratching my head with this one. Will it bring rainfall here or not?!?!? I pounded this out over the weekend and felt very confident that we would see a decent coverage of rainfall from this system. I am not quite as sure about it now. It might take a more southeasterly track and just throw the cloud cover in our direction. Then again... the showers chances still look possible as well!
What we have here to the left is the official track from the National Hurricane Center. This shows very little room for error. Which is a good thing if you are working at the NHC. That means they believe they have a handle on this situation. Though this track is pretty far to the south... we could still be skirted by the moisture from Ida.
My next observation is some of the other data that I look at from day to day.
This shows the deepest penetration out of any time period with the GFS. Only a few counties along the KY/VA border could get wet. Remember, with these sytems the cutoff line is very precise.
This run of the WRF barely has any moisture rolling into Tennessee. It also keeps all of the moisture out of Kentucky. This one has been disregarded by many in the last few days. I am right there with those folks!
Again... getting some of the activity in our region above.
The Canadian is close with the moisture, but not major penetration! The rain with this will be close... but in the time periods following this it keeps the rain pretty much out of here.
The point here is that the data is very messy. What one can take away from this is that rain is possible and that's where I am going to lean. I had a higher chance of rain earlier in the day, but I think that I will take that down to a 30%. The clouds and rain will probably keep highs down in the 50s for both Tuesday & Wednesday. We had the cloud cover around on Monday, but it did little to knock temperatures down. It was a nice day other than the cloud cover!
I mentioned the weekend earlier and it is looking very similar to last weekend with daytime highs well into the 60s with plenty of sunshine. We'll focus more on that after we get past this mid week mess.