If you check any of our news stories you know that there are all kinds of fires underway in eastern Kentucky. The firefighters are doing a great job and they are doing it without any help from Mother Nature. She really hasn't been that kind to those brave men & women. Even with this low slowly throwing showers towards Kentucky... nothing that really helps any of us out at all. By the time the moisture actually got here... it started dissipating. I am keeping chances around for a couple of days here, but only on the scattered variety. The one thing that we will see is the cooler stuff returning. The cut-off low will finally move far enough away that it won't have any direct effect on our rain chances. So until then... " You spin me right round, baby... Right round like a record, baby... Right round round round" LOL
There is sitll some debate on whether or not we'll see some moisture from a weekend system that approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. Some data is trending it more towards the southeast and others keep it right on track to bring some rainfall. Either way I think that some much cooler temps could be coming. Let's look at the data shall we...
The GFS on Saturday afternoon. This is showing the low well off to the south. WHich means that chances for rain on Saturday would be extremely low
This image is to GFS later that day and as you see here... the low is just enetering the Panhandle of Florida. So rain chances are out for Saturday.... according to this model.
Now we are looking at early Sunday morning and it appears the moisture is gathering and could likely run through our region. Or at the very least... western Kentucky. But wait!
This is Sunday afternoon and this shows us that the rain is just giving us a glancing blow. Which would translate into more cloud cover than anything else. This is a very crucial time to see some decent rainfall and if we continue courting this data set we will be left hanging out to dry.
Let's take a look at another model and see where it shows the low and the precip. The following image is the Canadian model.
This is for Sunday morning. The moisture has arrived and the track of the low will be more northerly. No need to show you Saturday for this one since it too is holding off the rainfall chances for Kentucky. Seems like earlier runs of data that I looked at were a little more aggressive. Simply meaning that we would see more in the way of rainfall from what I have seen before.
Now for a little more risk... I didn't want to start talking too much about this yet because I know that I hate speculation and I am sure you hate speculation. So I try to avoid it... well.... most of the time! I am going to write the lyrics to a song and you fill in the blanks... I have some word choices listed just below.
"I'm dreaming of a white ________"
A. December 1st
C. New Year's Day
Notice that the 25th day of December isn't listed as a correct answer here. That's still to far away, but if you guessed B you are correct. Kepp in mind that this is still more than a week away and a lot can change... So until I see more runs it will simply be a dream. Not that I want a White Thanksgiving... I would rather have that in December. All I am saying is that from what I have seen here it isn't out of the realm of possibility. I'll share with you what I have seen.... remember that this is strictly specualtion!
There's the moisture and it appears as if the cold air will here too! If you just took this run and wanted to make a forecast out of it... which I wouldn't recommend. However, I wouldn't even mention this and show you the images if there wasn't some sort of a base. It might be a shaky one, but it is a base. The GFS has hinted at this since last week. If it keeps on running this way I would be ready to marry the data.
Here's another from later that afternoon.
This is from early on Black Friday.
Well anyway... you get the point here! This has some potential and needs to be watched very closely! I'll keep you up-to-date right here. All you need to do is keep checking back.