First, let me tell you about my most recent trip to the doctor. There has been this incredible pain in my ankle area since last week. It flared up back in the summer too, but it just wasn't quite as bad! This time I wasn't sure I could get out of bed so I went to the doctor this time and he gave me a diagnosis... Gout! I thought WOW... I am 27 and I have Gout! So here we go! Just thought I would share that with you...lol...
Now how about the forecast information that I know you have been waiting for... that's what they pay me to do. Not to tell you about my medical issues...lol
The area of low pressure that has been throwing the showers chances into my daily forecast is about to become a memory. This means that the cloud cover and the rain associated with that system will also be leaving for a few days. Not that it ever really brought some decent moisture to the area. Most of Thursday-Saturday will remain on the dry side. A little cooler than what we have been seeing for highs, but not a terrible cold air outbreak.
There are still some signs that we could see a little bit of moisture pass by here on Sunday. If that's the case we'll have some light showers around and maybe some breezy conditions. Some of the data I reviwed with you on Tuesday is coming around though and actually pulling the rain out completely.
This is as close as the GFS gets the moisture on Sunday. An earlier run had it right on the KY/VA border but this one... not so much!
This the Canadian at the same time on Sunday. It shows the moisture barely over into Virginia. So the Sunday afternoon period will be a close one. What I really need to point out here is the fact that this run had to moisture spreading deep into Kentucky on Sunday. Now this looks like it will take a similar track as the GFS. BUT WAIT...
The GFS shows the moisure just barely across the line for Sunday evening. Definitely close enough for cloud cover and maybe a stray shower along the border.
The Canadian is barely pusing to rainfall over the border. It has been going more towards the GFS as far as trending more southeasterly. I will keep a 20% chance of showers east in my forecast until I can see a little more agreement. I might remove it completely if the GFS sticks with its guns and the Canadian stays about the same.
I am sure if you came by to read this then you have only one real thing on your mind and that is... "What's the deal with next week?" One of the main reasons I have started talking about the whole situation is because I know many of you will want to take that trip to grandma's or where ever. I don't want to alarm you I just want you to be prepared for this pretty complicated forecast. Here's what we have as of now!
This is on Wednesday evening and you can see that the moisture is swinging in with the colder air here. This could be a time for change over.
This looks very similar to what we had in the runs on Tuesday for the exact same time on Thursday afternoon. Again, moisture is present and so is the cold stuff!
Here we head into early Friday and the same thing seems to be happening here again!
What do we take away from this data? We put it in our minds and just be ready for whatever Mother Nature brings to the table. If I had this same data to look at come Wednesday... I'd tell you that we have some real potential for some snow. We are still one week out and there is still some uncertainty here so I'll keep you updated as much as I can until I am ready to make a full blown call on what will happen!
One more thing... On Monday night I will be posting my 2009/2010 Winter Forecast right here along with the normal post of the day. You will get the full forecast here first and then I will share the basic info on Tuesday's 6pm & 11pm weathercasts.