Victory in a forecast comes by keep on keeping on and that is what we intend to do here. I'll keep beating myself up with data and try to come to a conclusion soon. Well... for the weekend's forecast. Sunday has been one of those days that keep bouncing around with the data all week. One thing that I now get to review is our in-house model the RPM... it is very similar to the WRF. It runs out 84 hours and that now includes Sunday. That gives me another set of data to review! That makes the old man smile here.
Let's tackle the weekend first and then we will review the Thanksgiving mess!
After running this system more towards the southeast on Sunday it looks like the GFS has gone back to runs from earlier in the week. That includes a more northerly track and brings the cold, raw, and nasty rain to Kentucky.
The WRF is a little slower with that leading edge of moisture. There are a lot of similarirties between these two other than that. The central low pressure isn't far off and some other odds and ends make me happy that these two are so close. I can't stop here though.
The low is runnning alittle more southerly on the Canadian. However, the moisture is looking very similar to the others at this time frame. We are looking at early morning hours on Sunday.
GFS begins driving the moisture into Kentucky near sunrise. It's now spreading it all over Kentucky. This is very similar to earlier runs that it had this week. Could this be a fluke? Will the next run take out south again? The last two runs have looked like this one so maybe it has found its way or maybe it is a misfire in the run.
Uh-oh! The lows are nearly in the same location, but this run just above is keeping the rain out of Kentucky at this point of time. There is a big enough difference in location that would make this logical. But is that high in Canada strong enough to hold this low down that much? I didn't think it would be... all things considered. The positive that I keep seeing is that they are getting close to each other even if they are on different schedules.
The Canadian has taken a more southerly track eith the low, but is still trying to throw moisture towards Kentucky. Actually, putting it pretty deep into our region. It just has a significantly different track in mind.
The cold rain continues to fall all across Kentucky on Saturday. As mentioned, the GFS has returned to the original plan.
There's that cold rain showing up here too. Just a few hours later than the GFS and the Canadian. It also has the heavier stuff working through here as well. While the others have moved that in much earlier in the day.
Now they all three agree that it will be raining by Monday afternoon. It just takes them a little while longer to make the bigger push for the rain.
After reviewing all of this I have decided to not rule out rain. I made the comment in my last post that if thnigs kept turning south I would rule out the rain completely. That's not so true now though! This data is trying to come together it a unique way. It is still pretty rough around the edges, but I have seen enough to keep rain in the forecast on Sunday. It will be a cold rain too! One of those where you'd rather it be snowing if it is going to be that cold. I know we have all had those days right? LOL
Let's dive into the Thanksgiving week.
Do you see why I haven't really jumped the gun and told you to go running to the grocery stores?!?! Is our Thanksgiving system beginning to weaken? If you look at this you can say yes! The cold air still looks like it makes a run into Kentucky, but the moisture just isn't cutting it in this run.
There is just enough moisture to keep things interesting here. Again, not as much as some of the previous runs! I am not try to stir your minds away from seeing some wintry stuff, because I know how quickly these models can get off on a brain freeze and then recover to save the day.
Once again, I will not make any official ruing until next week. By that time we'll all have looked over this data so much that our eyes will be blurry and all we wanna do is eat turkey. MMMMMM..... Turkey!
Another friendly reminder... my 2009/2010 Winter Forecst will be posted here on Monday night. Make sure you log on one to check it out. I will keep it posted high for a few weeks so it will be easily discovered. Obviously, I'll have to have another full post on Monday night to talk in great detail about the Thanksgiving system. So there you have two great reasons to come back on Monday.
Finally, I want to invite all of you to share your comments here. The hits keep climbing, but everyone must be shy! Share your thoughts... remember it doesn't have to be about weather. I just want some good fun conversation going here.