Caldwell's 2009-2010 Winter Forecast

Once again it is time for me to give you my best bet on what winter will bring around here. I like to say that a lot of this is for entertainment. It is also a mess I have been working on for a few weeks. I hope you enjoy!


I went back and looked at how I formatted this thing last season. I also will be using the same housecleaning notes because they stand!

Let's get the housecleaning notes out in the open first.

  1. This is my opinion and much like any opinion on anything everybody has one. So some may disagree and some may agree. If you disagree and leave a comment I might delete it! HAHA
  2. I absolutely refuse to go into great detail on how I put this forecast together. If I start talking about analog years, La Nina or El Nino, Positive NAO or any other weather jargon I feel like you will get bored and dump me. HAHA!
  3. This forecast was put together by looking at the aforementioned items along with the Climate Forecast System.
  4. It's about 60% climatology, 30% experience, and 10% a mad love for snow! HAHA
  5. This is to be taken seriously for entertainment purposes only. This is only my 3rd true long range winter forecast and I am working the kinks out. 

December: This will be a month that will get started off on a cold note and I think across the board it will stay that way. I know many of you are probably thinking aout how warm it has been in November, but I am telling you that the cold stuff that is supposed to be here will be here! As for snow this month... I think we have a better than average chance to see some reasonable snowfall activity. So the official call is... Below Normal Temps with Above Normal Precip!

January: We shouldn't catch too many breaks this month. There will be that normal cold felt around here with some milder days thrown into the middle of the month. That won''t last and we'll keep the cold around for the majority of the month. It looks like temps will hoover very close to normal or just a touch colder for the monthly average. You factor that in with some moisture and we are talking about a chance for some snow. Especially, after we get through the brief milder stretch in the middle parts of the month. The second half of the month will make you forget all about anything mild for a while. This is when all of our winter activity will come together. Official call... Below Normal Temps with Above Normal Precip.

February: It's all about the fun and games for our shortest month. The early parts of the month have a lot of potential and maybe kind of weakening a bit toward the end. Would I be surprised to see some big snow this month? I think this could be that period where the stage has been set and the roughest part of winter will invade. Official call... Below Normal Temps with Above Normal Precip. Are you noticing a trend here?

March: After temps climb toward the end of the month in February (Still really cold) We will enter a pretty decent cold spell for March. I don't have to go over the historic factors of this month since we all know the old saying "March Weather... you just never know what you will get" This is a transitional month... all kinds of things happen hear on a normal basis. This year will feature some late season snow. There should be a lot of moisture being pumped into the region that will allow for things to really get turned loose if the stars line-up. However, some relatively mild weather could push the monthly average up a few degrees. Official call... Near Normal Temps with Above Normal Precip.

Now for the final and most important call on the winter. The total accumulated snowfall by winter's end. Remember all of this snow will not be on the ground at the same time. Last season, I kept totals around normal, but this year with the moisture pipeline that we could get going I really think totals will be above average.

Highest Elevations: 37"-42"

Everyone else: 32"-37"

These totals are quite a bit higher than I thought I would use. I was sitting at this very computer on the morning of November 23rd and I made some last second adjustments and this is what my totals came out to be and here we are. Now we sit and wait! I hope you have enjoyed reading this just as much as I have enjoyed putting it together. Please leave your comments!


C-Ya Bye


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