I hope you had plenty of Turkey over the weekend. This one looks delicious. One of the many foods listed on my doctor's sheet regarding gout included cutting back on Turkey and like a million other things, but I only hae Turkey like this once or twice a year so I had to get in on the action! Plus, the doctor said everything in moderation. ;)I also want to say a special hey, hi, how are you to Bob from Corbin. I am taking your advice to ease these situation, along with the meds, so thanks for your email!
I got back on here to read some of your comments (I always read them) and the first thing I saw on my last post was this...
Posted by: Anonymous we didn't get anything not even a coat. So whats up with that?
So I will answer this before we get the new week rolling. Some folks did see some snow... there wasn't any accumulations anywhere that I am aware of. When dealing with that coating forecast it can really be hit or miss. That's the beauty of this whole thing. The next system we see like this I'll get to do it all over again.
This week has some more cold air rolling into Kentucky. Maybe the longest cold air outbreak we have seen so far. Sure there have been a few days where the cold stuck around, but there was always a warm shot that followed it in and allowed temps to climb back to normal or in some cases above normal. I don't see that really happening within the next week or so. This cold air is right on cue with the winter prediction. Daytime highs, beginning Thursday, will struggle to get out of the 30s. Lows will also be a bear by dropping into the 20s on many nights.
Tuesday & Wednesday might actually be fairly decent with highs in the upper 40s or even in the low 50s. After that is when the drop takes place.
An area of low pressure will develop in the Gulf region and begin to cruise through the deep south and spread some moisture into Kentucky. While that develops Tuesday and part of Wednesday... some warm air could get transfered into the commonwealth. That is one reason temps stay a little warmer on Tues & Weds. The leading edge of the moisture will be here by Wednesday though.
WRF Weds AM GFS Weds AM
Some obvious differences between the GFS and WRF. The GFS is really cranking up the rainfall rates while the WRF is a little calmer. The low pressure is tracking differently. Both have the moisture either right here with us or on our doorstep by Wednesday AM. I am going with the slower progression of the rainfall.
WRF Thu AM GFS Thus AM
Notice how a few hundred miles makes a big difference on Thursday morning? The flow with the WRF is bringing the winds more from the WNW while with the GFS we are seeing the NW flow and that keeps the rain chances alive through THursday morning. Both of these runs are much faster than what I looker at earlier... well not too much faster, but both are trying to end the rainfor us a little quicker on Thursday. Do you see the pink line out in Western Kentucky on the WRF and right through Central Kentucky on the GFS. That line is commonly known as the "Rain/Snow" line. The snow does strsy away from that line often, but it is a good guide when looking just at the surface maps like these. You really have to look from top to bottom to see where the coldest aiir is and all that jazz. What is one to do in this situation where my two favorite models are disagreeing so much?!?! I am belnding these two and keeping the rain around for a little while on Thursday. I have looked at other data to back that up, but I don't have room for the reall cool side-by-side stuff...lol
Well look more into this and the chance that a few flakes might mix in with one of these systems later.