I Am Staying On My Toes

With a set-up like the one we are seeing for the weekend you always have to be on your guard! That's where I find myself. Watching every small change with the data.

I hate to completely ignore the next couple of days... so again here is the latest on what's happening for Thursday & Friday. Thursday will remain dry with periods of clouds and sunshine. Highs will probably strike the 40 degree mark or even slightly higher for some. The forecast for Friday night is starting to become a little more interesting. If this system takes a certain path then we will see some rain or rain/snow mix late in the day. Right now I will just keep the mention of rain/snow late! The other forecast issues come into play on Saturday morning and could stick around through Monday.

I am looking at two two general paths for the weekend big player! The other weaker disturbances will also drive some cold and snow into the area. I'll have more on that in a later on in this post!

                                 WRF Fri PM                                                                          GFS Fri PM

                                                                                  Canadian Fri Night


Both the GFS & WRF have this system getting closer and closer to the coast. The Canadian still has it out to sea a little bit. If plenty of moisture is in the cards for us then the closer to the coast that this low travels... the better our rain/snow chances will be. Even if it works farther inland we'll still have the wet possibilities. What we are looking at here also backs up what I mentioned about the wet weather beginning on Friday night.

The moisture you see to the north is one of those disturbances that I mentioned earlier. This will have some pretty cold air associated with it and will interact with the moisture quite nicely over Kentucky. There will be a few of these that ctually gets going and dips into our region.

                                WRF Sat AM                                                                                    GFS Sat AM


                                                                                    Canadian Sat AM


Pay close attention to the moisture from the northwest. It will be those systems that keep the snow chances alive through the weekend. Which is a very good set-up if you are waiting one one of those White Christmas forecasts. Which is something I will start detailing more next week!

If you are curious about what the model data is trying to say about accumulation... I'll show you the image, but I won't tell you which way I am leaning until Thursday night. I think you will be impressed! Just don't get caught up in the data.

                                        WRF Thru Sunday Morning

                                       GFS Thru Sunday Morning

Quite a lot to take in right? Remember a lot of this includes the snow that gets going from the NW disturbances!

I'll have more coming!

C-Ya Bye

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