The Full Post

It's hard getting back into a routine with everything we have going on here this week. I'll try to knock this one out for you!

Anyone remember that 2009/2010 winter forecast I put out back in November? So far, so good right? LOL

The snow may appear to stop from time to time with this early week wintry round. Then all of sudden it will pour again! That's just the set-up with this system and it will continue until it tapers off on Wednesday. I am sticking with this graphic.

I think this is right on track. The only positive about getting 4" of snow in this situation is the fact that it isn't the nasty heavy snow. The air is pretty cold and doesn't allow for a lot of water to go to waste. That's why we are seeing lighter flakes. These are frozen pretty good given the temperature situation out there.

The temps will likely be the bigger story for most of the week. Highs in the teens & 20s with lows running in the single digit category on a few nights. The wind chill/feels like temps will dance with ZERO quite a few times. Maybe by the end of the week we'll see the BELOW ZERO come our way.

Most of you have heard rumors of the system that gets in here later this week. So let's get a few points out there before going to the graphics.

  1. This system will come from the north.
  2. Moisture will be limited, yet, plentiful.
  3. The cold temps will keep the super heavy snow away.

WRF Thursday Afternoon                            GFS Thursday Afternoon

The GFS is a little more aggressive with the moisture. It is also puts the low in Kentucky earlier as well. With the GFS the snow will be heavier in the frame. The WRF isn't showing the moisture as heavy over our region. It keeps things less intense... not only here... but...

WRF Thursday Evening                            GFS Thursday Evening

The WRF is beginning to lighten up while the GFS keeps the moisture locked into the region. There will be snow showers after the system passes us by, but the intensity is what comes into question.

I'll dig deeper into this after the current situation is out of my life.

Stay warm and limit your time outdoors!

C-Ya Bye

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