After reading many of your comments and checking other forecasts I can see why there is so much confusion! This event has some saying 1" and mine saying up to 10" for the high elevations. I am going out on a limb here with what I am about to say... but some of these other forecasts you guys are reading were prepared somewhere else! These people that forecast nationally know weather and a lot about the subject... the subject in general! How things should go under the circumstances... that's what they know! You will never read anything here that discredits another person in the field. Everyone has their own style, tricks, technique, and forecasts. Could I forecast true lake effect snow in let's say Buffalo? Absolutely! Could someone who has been doing it for years and knows a lot about the terrain and other things do it better? Absolutely! That's their home turf and they'll win in the beginning, but I can always catch up with experience. That's what makes us different here at WYMT.
I don't claim to know everything about weather and there are times I have to go back and look things up because there is just so much information going in while reviewing the data. I'll have to look at biases that I have recorded and make those references. I have them all saved on my computer and flash drive. These are the things that I have noticed under certain situations. I have been at the station for nearly 10 years and learned quite a bit during that time. Trust me there is plenty to learn and I learn new things everyday.
I said all that to say this... I feel like I have better feel for the weather in eastern Kentucky because I live here and I see it all first hand. Some may underestimate the totals while I know that systems like this can really bring the snow. Especially, on the back side!
I hope that helps with the confusion...lol
Here's the timeline:
The main push of the moisture will arrive between 7am & 10am. Between the beginning and the end of the initial wave we'll see 3"-5" for Thursday into early Friday. Once it changes over to mainly upslope we'll pick up another 1"-2" in most locations. So the quick shot arrives on Thursday. The non-stop hangs around through the weekend.
Keep in mind that the totals you see here run through the weekend. There could be some quick shots of snow that will lay an inch or two here or there. That's why we are keeping the totals as you see them here. Elevations of 2500ft will be closer to the 10" mark. The winds will be whipping around making it feel much colder than the air temp shows. We could see wind chill readings go well below 0.
That's all I have for you guys! If things begin to change I will do the same!