If you went from Lexington to Covington on Tuesday you were leaving one warm area and trading it in for winter time. That's really what the difference would have been if you travelled from one to the other. It was the same case across eastern KY on Monday. We were warm while central Ky was stuck in winter.
You go from needing a light jacket in Lexingotn to needing a little something more by the time you arrive up north. Once again on Wednesday it will look the same way with highs pretty warm in the south and cooler in the north. I want to push that temp line farther to the north, but I think I will keep it close to I-64. The real point here is to remember that we'll be rather comfortable around here.
GFS Weds PM WRF Weds PM
In the GFS version of the temp data the warm temps are pushed closer to I-64 and the WRF is allowing for more of the cold air to invade from the north. This is the reason I am keeping I-64 my battle ground area. Some of the cooler stuff could drift into our region, but I think we stay on the warm side!
The next big issue to tackle will be the rain for Weds-Fri. The rain will begin on Wednesday and stay pretty active until Friday finally gets here. During that time we could see a decent amount of rainfall. Luckily, the temps have warmed up some and allowed the ground to thaw to some degree. This will allow a little more water to get soaked up into the ground. During the winter time the ground is usually pretty solid and it doesn't allow for a lot of water to get back into the ground. Rather than absorbtion... it becomes runoff. This can happen anytime n the year, but during the summer the ground will abosrb and hold more. So these warm temps are not only great in the pleasant sense, but combats water issues. However, the ground is still pretty saturated from recent rain/snow so it's a big forecasting mess!
WRF Accumulated Precip Thru Fri PM
The WRF suggest we could see between 1.5" - 2" or maybe even higher amounts in some locations. This is all the way thru Fri evening. Something we need to atleast pay attention to as the event gets closer.