Wildfire & Snow

Talk of snow has spread like wildfire! The bigger the event looks, the bigger and better the juicy weather gossip gets!

So far, I have responded to 3 emails asking the same question! "Are we getting 2 feet of snow tonight?" If 3 people were thinking that... how many more had heard this inaccurate information? That's why I am calling it juicy weather gossip because it takes on a life of its own. This is one of the reasons I always like to address the first system and then move on to the second system in my posts. Just to keep confusion down as much as I possibly can. Plus, if everyone thinks 2 feet is coming tonight and we only get an inch... who looks bad? LOL

Make sure that everyone you know is clear on the weather picture! Here's the forecast for tonight!

The snow will have to prove heavy and consistent in order to beat out the ground temps right now. There's a battle between the two that continues tonight-tomorrow!

Tuesday keeps the snow around and then wraps up completely late in the day! Wednesday will likely be a dry and cold one!

Now comes the tricky part... Thursday-Saturday. If you haven't seen my post High Water & Return To Winter go read it and see what was happening on Sunday with these runs. Since this is a critical forecast I am going to share as much data that I can.

            NAM Fri AM                                                                   GFS Fri AM                                             Canadian Fri AM


These three are for around 7am on Friday morning. Each is different in the placement of the "rain/snow" line. They are also different with moisture at the beginning, The Canadian, in this run, is really pressing the moisture into the region early! It's also shoving that line far enough to the north that one would have to be concerned with ice possibilities. All three tell me that though! The other two may hva emore of a chance of bringing that to our region though. The GFS and NAM have both gotten a little closer on low placement and moisture content!

Unfortunately, as this moment I have gone as far in the future that I can with the NAM. The other two go out longer so we'll review these.

GFS Fri Evening                                           Canadian Fri Evening


Both of these have moisture in the same places and "rain/snow" line in the same spot. The low is much stronger on the GFS though.

I am concerned that the set-up across southern KY may include some decent accumulations of ice and then snow will be thrown on top of all that! This will be a great challenge to really iron this out completely. That's why I don't understand why I keep seeing all these forecasts that are calling for gloom and doom 4 days before the system even reaches us! My goal right now is to have you ready in case this happens. Have your plan in motion because if in fact the data keeps trending the way it is trending we will be in for a good one. I am just not that confident in saying that right now. Some folks will get hit pretty hard by this system. But history has shown me to wait and see if the GFS has started a NW pull. Usually it has done it by now and maybe that's why gloom and doom is out there. If you are wondering what gloom and doom I am referring to... look below!

Latest GFS Run on the snow

Early GFS Run

You can see how some totals are getting cut back a little from the data itself! I am not ready to commit to any data like this or even the data I put together myself. I'll have more on the growing potential as that info becomes available!

And remember... watch out for the wildfire!

C-Ya Bye

Read More Blogs

You must be logged in to post comments.

Password (case sensitive):
Remember Me:

Read Comments

Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Derek Location: Harlan County on Jan 26, 2010 at 07:38 PM
    Even though I am trying so hard to stay positive, it is difficult when the latest models have pushed the low nearly to the FLA panhandle?.?.?.? Jim please say that the trend has been north for these right at crunch time, if im not mistaken, i think it is, but who knows.
  • by Derek Location: Harlan County on Jan 26, 2010 at 07:25 PM
    I am not going to buy into this southern trend the models are showing right now. The storm is just now making landfall on the pacific coastline. The models are just models after all. We may still get in on a major snow. It is still two to three days out. After the low bypasses the rockies and hits the so. plains, I think we will have a much better idea of what is going on. As of right now, models are showing a southern trend, but I am just looking at the models from past storms. some trend to the North as it draws near... Lets keep our hopes high!
  • by Cindy Location: Barbourville, KY on Jan 26, 2010 at 06:06 PM
    I for one like Jim, I feel safe when he is on there monitoring the severe weather, and I think he is a good meteorologist. I'll wait and see what happens with the weather.. but I'm hoping that we get 18 inches here lol And for those who have to travel and be on the road be careful and stay safe!! Keep up the WONDERFUL work Jim!!!
  • by William Location: Middlesboro on Jan 26, 2010 at 05:54 PM
    I know you said the farter south you were the more you will get today at the 6pm weather. So how much for Middlesboro?
  • by Sue Location: London, KY on Jan 26, 2010 at 05:31 PM
    Jim, to me you are the ONLY meteorologist, in my opinion, that keeps it real. You have one that is too busy patting himself on the back and another one that is too busy blowing things out of proportion to get blog hits and then we have you to tell us what is REALLY happening. Thanks Jim you're the BEST! Anxiously awaiting your next update for London, KY
  • by Frosty Location: E KYy on Jan 26, 2010 at 04:34 PM
    Jim, Save us from this Snow-mageddon!
  • by Anonymous on Jan 26, 2010 at 03:47 PM
    Can we watch the tracks?? If so, where do we go to watch them???
  • by Scott Location: West Hollywood, CA on Jan 26, 2010 at 03:03 PM
    I miss home when there is the possibility of a big snow. No snow in LA. :-( I think Jim does an awesome job. Always keep track via internet. Jim is now national!
  • by vanessa short Location: mcroberts on Jan 26, 2010 at 02:56 PM
    so no snow.
  • by Jim Caldwell on Jan 26, 2010 at 02:32 PM
    I will have a full update later! Since we are not on the brink I am not rushing out data. Thanks for your kind words! The cold Arctic air may be strong enough to push this system farther south and that's what the data has suggested today! I'll go more in detail on what that means tonight!


2851 Winchester Rd. Lexington, Ky 40509 859-299-0411 - switchboard 859-299-2727 - newsroom
Register for Email
RSS Feeds
Copyright © 2002-2015 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability
Gray Television, Inc.