Wildfire & Snow

Talk of snow has spread like wildfire! The bigger the event looks, the bigger and better the juicy weather gossip gets!

So far, I have responded to 3 emails asking the same question! "Are we getting 2 feet of snow tonight?" If 3 people were thinking that... how many more had heard this inaccurate information? That's why I am calling it juicy weather gossip because it takes on a life of its own. This is one of the reasons I always like to address the first system and then move on to the second system in my posts. Just to keep confusion down as much as I possibly can. Plus, if everyone thinks 2 feet is coming tonight and we only get an inch... who looks bad? LOL

Make sure that everyone you know is clear on the weather picture! Here's the forecast for tonight!

The snow will have to prove heavy and consistent in order to beat out the ground temps right now. There's a battle between the two that continues tonight-tomorrow!

Tuesday keeps the snow around and then wraps up completely late in the day! Wednesday will likely be a dry and cold one!

Now comes the tricky part... Thursday-Saturday. If you haven't seen my post High Water & Return To Winter go read it and see what was happening on Sunday with these runs. Since this is a critical forecast I am going to share as much data that I can.

            NAM Fri AM                                                                   GFS Fri AM                                             Canadian Fri AM


These three are for around 7am on Friday morning. Each is different in the placement of the "rain/snow" line. They are also different with moisture at the beginning, The Canadian, in this run, is really pressing the moisture into the region early! It's also shoving that line far enough to the north that one would have to be concerned with ice possibilities. All three tell me that though! The other two may hva emore of a chance of bringing that to our region though. The GFS and NAM have both gotten a little closer on low placement and moisture content!

Unfortunately, as this moment I have gone as far in the future that I can with the NAM. The other two go out longer so we'll review these.

GFS Fri Evening                                           Canadian Fri Evening


Both of these have moisture in the same places and "rain/snow" line in the same spot. The low is much stronger on the GFS though.

I am concerned that the set-up across southern KY may include some decent accumulations of ice and then snow will be thrown on top of all that! This will be a great challenge to really iron this out completely. That's why I don't understand why I keep seeing all these forecasts that are calling for gloom and doom 4 days before the system even reaches us! My goal right now is to have you ready in case this happens. Have your plan in motion because if in fact the data keeps trending the way it is trending we will be in for a good one. I am just not that confident in saying that right now. Some folks will get hit pretty hard by this system. But history has shown me to wait and see if the GFS has started a NW pull. Usually it has done it by now and maybe that's why gloom and doom is out there. If you are wondering what gloom and doom I am referring to... look below!

Latest GFS Run on the snow

Early GFS Run

You can see how some totals are getting cut back a little from the data itself! I am not ready to commit to any data like this or even the data I put together myself. I'll have more on the growing potential as that info becomes available!

And remember... watch out for the wildfire!

C-Ya Bye

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