Crossing the Critical Timeline

As the night turns to day and we are staring at Thursday... it becomes clear to me that we'll need a solid forecast. First call for now... soon I'll have to make it official!

If Regis Philbin (I always liked him on Millionaire) said those famous words to me, "Is that your final answer," I'd have to say YES!

I feel pretty confident with the numbers that I have issued! Of course we'll review the latest data and see if things have changed very much. In the meantime, here is the First Call graphic again.

One thing I didn't mention earlier was that some areas could see 10" or a little higher. I think that will be in isolated locations. The general totals have it covered pretty well though. My confidence is pretty high about this whole forecast, but there is still that chance that some of the data will try to shift again! If I change these numbers on Thursday it won't be by much!

The winter storm watch was updated after I posted the other graphic earlier. It just filled in the gaps.

I am sure more counties will be added in West Virginia and in Virginia later. The storm will roll northeast and that takes more snow up the coast.

While I have issued my first call above, some of the model data is still looking very interesting.

The 18z run of the NAM looks very similar to what I have. It seems to have a pretty good handle on things.

18z Run - NAM Through Sat PM

The was the 12z run and notice that both have similar cut-offs and keeps the general area for the heaviest snow in similar locations. The true location of the heavy swath is hard to determine. This is only an example... It might set-up right along the Hal Rogers Parkway and and dump 10" right along it and in a county on either side of it... 3"-6"  So until this system gets really close we'll have to watch it very closely!

12z GFS Through Sat PM

18z GFS Through Sat PM

These last two have been very consistent. That's what I like to see.

I know many of you are still worried about major power outages, trees falling, and all those other things we experienced back in December. The snow we will see won't be that heavy natured snow. I am not saying that power outages aren't completely ruled out, but I really don't see it happening on the same scale as December.

The timing of this system is the next challenge. As my young friend Derek pointed out in one of his comments, Virga will be an early issue. How long will the moisture evaporate before it starts making it to the surface. With this blast of cold air rolling into the region it will also work to dry the atmosphere up quite a bit so this is why it becomes a problem. I figured that into my totals though and that's why I have gone, generally, lower than what you are seeing. The rest of Friday and Saturday will have enough juice to keep the totals tally up!

The NAM finally lets some moisture slip over the border late Friday evening. Which goes against what I am thinking, but does it have validity this close to blast off?

GFS has the moisture arriving much earlier! During the mid morning to afternoon.

My first call is somewhere between 8am-11am for start time Friday!

I'll have my next call on snowfall Thursday afternoon. I'll probably lock it in unless something scares It is now time to begin preparing for snow. Whatever you think that might mean to your family. Have a plan ready to act when this thing starts and you see that it is adding up! 

C-Ya Bye

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