Still No Cake Walk

My confidence is getting higher that the weekend event will be mainly a rainmaker. I just can't buy into this completely though. That keeps this forecast very fun and interesting!

The daytime hours on Thursday look fine. Some areas will likely see temps well into the 40s during the afternoon. I would go higher, but I think sunshine will be limited around here. The clouds will begin thickening up later on in the afternoon and evening. Maybe earlier for some. There is only a brief break in cloud cover out there so it will be hard nailing it down completely.

In my previous post... I discussed my concerns and uncertainty about whether there would be a freezing precip line show up or what would happen. If the warm air really pushes into KY there will only be a brief period during the early goings of the arrival.

NAM Early Friday

GFS Early Fri

At least the GFS is trying to show some wintry weather moving into the area around the arrival time. But both have kept mainly rain in these last few days. Everything else I have looked has me sticking with the mainly rain scenario. I won't rule out a brief snow shower here or some sleet there. Overall, the start will be more rain than anything else. I'm nearly out of time on this one... so there will be little time to correct this if something changes tonight. I just don't see how it could change so much that it keeps a mix or anything else in our region very long at all.

These next images are not from Friday, but from Saturday. That's when the cold air dives back down into KY and changes the rain over to snow. So the period in between the images above and these below looks rainy.

NAM Early Sat

GFS Early Sat

The GFS has snow invading the area a little earlier. We are looking at the same time here, but what I didn't show is that the snow starts a little earlier with the GFS.

The snow will stick around through Sunday.

NAM is spitting out some decent totals. A new swath of snow has shown up... suggesting that an intense area of snow will show up in KY.

NAM Snowfall Thru Sunday

GFS Snowfall Thru Sunday

This is still a minute-by-minute forecast. I'll have more later!

C-Ya Bye

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