This forecast really shouldn't come as a big surprise to you. Mother Nature has had the accelerator held down this winter. There have been a few stop signs along the way, but she has shown no sign of slowing down at all! And who is going to argue with her?
The next system weak will be here by the weekend. This shouldn;t even be a bumo in the road and barely a flake in the sky. This all goes down on Friday Saturday.
There is still some debate around the arrival time for the Sunday system. Late afternoon into the evening is the timeframe I am favoring. Let's examine the data!
NAM Sunday Evening NAM Early Monday Morning
This is as far out as we can go right now with the NAM. The moisture isn't exactly intense... yet.... but there is enough showing up out there!
GFS Sun. Evening GFS Early Mon. Morning GFS Mon. Morning GFS Mon. Afternoon
GFS Mon. Evening GFS Early Tues. Morning GFS Tues. Morning GFS Tues. Afternoon
The GFS has an earlier arrival time than the NAM. It is still showing some relatively heavy areas of moisture. Specifically, for Monday's forecast. The bulk of the heavier stuff is showing up North of our region. The flow keeps moisture in our region for a couple of days. A pretty similar situation to what we saw on Wednesday. This could allow totals to really stack up. We are still pretty far out... not from the beginning... but from the end of this system. I would normally begin thinking of a first call for Friday, but this may wait until Saturday or even Sunday. It will all depend on several things going on with this data.
The GFS snowfall accumulation graphic is cranking out some pretty heavy totals north of KY. Keep in mind... we still have a few days until this system starts... let alone ends. This data below only goes out 120 hours. And a lot can change in 20 minutes... just imagine what can happen in 120 hours?!?!?!?!
A lot can and will change over the next few days. Keep checking back for updates and I will keep posting!