When you find that the data isn't agreeing you have to look beyond the getting on the same page and see whcih one is running the most consistent. The consistency factor is always a good factor. It becomes an even bigger plus when all the other data comes around to the "Consistent" one's way of thinking. One thing all of the data is pretty much saying is that Friday looks fine and the data also says enjoy while it lasts. Actually, the data doesn't say that, but I am saying it! Insert station promotion here... If you find yourself with nothing to do on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday you should find your way to the WYMT Sport, Boat, and RV show at the Expo Center in Pikeville.
If you are worried about what may happen with the weather... here's what I am thinking for Friday... For the most part it looks like it will be a sunny day with temps hoovering around 40 for highs. Maybe even warmer in some areas. The tricky issues with Saturday's forecast aren't as heavy. As a matter of fact, it may be pretty calm for most of us around here. Let's investigate!
NAM Sat PM GFS Sat PM
I have only chosen to highlight the evening on Saturday. The forecast has evolved from a decent looking disturbance to a cough in the wind. What we need to focus on now will be the clouds and the fact that the pink line, the 540 line, is moving north of KY. This becomes very important when the Sunday forecast comes into the equation. The line isn't always a sure thing but works as a great tool to find the rain snow line. Not a problem for the images above! The problem is just beginning though.
Candian Sun PM Canadian Early Monday Canadian Monday Afternoon
Canadian Monday Evening Canadian Early Tuesday Canadian Tuesday AM
Just looking at this you see a good strong flow come in from the south and push temps way up there. mid 40s? Upper 40s? 50s? That's how strong the flow looks. But it all comes crashing down quickly on the back side of this system. The snow also begins once the main energy passes us by. The early concern that I had was where will the initial batch of moisture set up at? The final track and push of cold or warm air will mean a lot. The Canadian is the most agressive with the moisture and the cold... at the moment.
The GFS isn't quite as strong with the snow flow on the back side. The final track is still what I am interested in and that will determine a lot. As of this moment... most of the heavy bands of snow would set-up north of here while we could be looking at some handsome amounts of rain on soaked grounds. The rainfall totals aren't off the charts in the latest runs, but the ground is plenty full at the moment.
Notice that the heavier "moisture is north of us and really effects central and northern KY. Some of that will come down as snow for all of us. The GFS isn't my pick at the moment, but that can change and it often does. Keep this image in mind until my next post on Friday.
The next post may either be really early on Friday or really late. I am going over to the Sport, boat and RV show on Friday for LIVE weather at 4pm & 6pm. I 'll have to be there much earlier than 4pm to get everything lined up so blog time may be limited until I get back.