Details Keep Coming

All data sets are not looking at this system the same way. All realize that something interesting is trying to develop. What? When? How much? Those are the questions that the data isn't agreeing on.

When you find that the data isn't agreeing you have to look beyond the getting on the same page and see whcih one is running the most consistent. The consistency factor is always a good factor. It becomes an even bigger plus when all the other data comes around to the "Consistent" one's way of thinking. One thing all of the data is pretty much saying is that Friday looks fine and the data also says enjoy while it lasts. Actually, the data doesn't say that, but I am saying it! Insert station promotion here... If you find yourself with nothing to do on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday you should find your way to the WYMT Sport, Boat, and RV show at the Expo Center in Pikeville.

If you are worried about what may happen with the weather... here's what I am thinking for Friday... For the most part it looks like it will be a sunny day with temps hoovering around 40 for highs. Maybe even warmer in some areas. The tricky issues with Saturday's forecast aren't as heavy. As a matter of fact, it may be pretty calm for most of us around here. Let's investigate!

          NAM Sat PM                              GFS Sat PM

I have only chosen to highlight the evening on Saturday. The forecast has evolved from a decent looking disturbance to a cough in the wind. What we need to focus on now will be the clouds and the fact that the pink line, the 540 line, is moving north of KY. This becomes very important when the Sunday forecast comes into the equation. The line isn't always a sure thing but works as a great tool to find the rain snow line. Not a problem for the images above! The problem is just beginning though.

       Candian Sun PM                     Canadian Early Monday                  Canadian Monday Afternoon


    Canadian Monday Evening            Canadian Early Tuesday            Canadian Tuesday AM

Just looking at this you see a good strong flow come in from the south and push temps way up there. mid 40s? Upper 40s? 50s? That's how strong the flow looks. But it all comes crashing down quickly on the back side of this system. The snow also begins  once the main energy passes us by. The early concern that I had was where will the initial batch of moisture set up at?  The final track and push of cold or warm air will mean a lot. The Canadian is the most agressive with the moisture and the cold... at the moment.

The GFS isn't quite as strong with the snow flow on the back side. The final track is still what I am interested in and that will determine a lot. As of this moment... most of the heavy bands of snow would set-up north of here while we could be looking at some handsome amounts of rain on soaked grounds. The rainfall totals aren't off the charts in the latest runs, but the ground is plenty full at the moment.

Notice that the heavier "moisture is north of us and really effects central and northern KY. Some of that will come down as snow for all of us. The GFS isn't my pick at the moment, but that can change and it often does. Keep this image in mind until my next post on Friday.

The next post may either be really early on Friday or really late. I am going over to the Sport, boat and RV show on Friday for LIVE weather at 4pm & 6pm. I 'll have to be there much earlier than 4pm to get everything lined up so blog time may be limited until I get back. 

C-Ya Bye

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Comments are posted from viewers like you and do not always reflect the views of this station.
  • by Lexus Location: Pike County on Feb 20, 2010 at 12:17 PM
    By where I'm at in Eastern Ky will we get rain or snow. Or both. As long as we don't get ICE thats fine with me.
  • by Gregory Location: Whitesburg on Feb 20, 2010 at 09:09 AM
    Hello Jim, Ive heard over and over another snow storm is moving in this week...Is that true? Ive heard its gonna hit late Tues./Early Wensday?? -Gregory
  • by Anonymous on Feb 20, 2010 at 06:53 AM
    where's the update jimmy!?!?!?! i've heard so many different things...are we really in for big storm tuesday into wednesday?? a big snow storm that is....what's your take on this Jim??
  • by Derek Location: Harlan County on Feb 19, 2010 at 08:09 PM
    Please post jim, and give us some thought on next weeks possible snowstorm. (The wed-fri system) Nobody cares about the mon-tues. sytem, it is going to be just two rainy days, but the thur wed system looks like a BEAST
  • by Jim Caldwell on Feb 19, 2010 at 07:50 PM
    Just got back to the staion and I will update asap... which won't be soon enough!!
  • by Brandon Location: Middlesboro on Feb 19, 2010 at 06:33 PM
    Another site is saying that we could have a huge storm in here by Wednesday. Said the cold ait will already be in place. What are you hearing about it Jim? I know Sunday and Monday will be all rain now.
  • by Anonymous on Feb 19, 2010 at 06:25 PM
  • by Derek Location: Harlan County on Feb 18, 2010 at 09:07 PM
    I would love to go to that thing. I have seen it advertised every year on WYMT, but have never went. As far as weather goes, I noticed on some other blogs, a few mets are talking about some big time snow in E KY, I am really confused and wondering about this.... the 540 stays all the way up into ohio during the time the main energy passes over us, so what is the deal??? Is there conflict between upper level temps and ground temps or what because I have heard everything and its grandpa about this upcoming storm.... Personally, this thing looks to be far out in left field as a major snow event, like JC said, there will be some left over moisture on the backside once the arctic front pushes through, but by then, the winter wallop will be well out of our vicinity. Jim, any calls on amounts yet:) I am anxious to see because there are so many different tales about this low. Not like we arent used to that or anything, but your accuracy has been outstanding this season. Keep it up!
  • by Brandon Location: Middlesboro on Feb 18, 2010 at 08:05 PM
    Jim, So basically everyone is SEKY can pretty much just expect all rain and no snow from the looks of things. Which is dissapointing.
  • by Crystal Location: Pikeville on Feb 18, 2010 at 07:45 PM
    I will have to come by and say hi.What are you thoughts with any kind of flooding is it possible?


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