I have issued a first call for snow fall in my earlier post. Now, I know many of you are wondering why/how did I come to that decision. I keep harping about the models, the trends, and the feeling. The feeling that something is going to happen and happen in a decent was developed after watching a couple of new runs earlier on Tuesday. What I thought would happen slowly began to do just that! If that sticks... we'll be in for some decent accumulations again. There are still all kinds of "What Ifs" and we'll have to work past them. It's nearly game time!
The last run I looked at pulled the moisture away from eastern KY a little quicker than I would have preferred. Not that I am wanting another measurable snow... I just want this to come off a little more simple... that's all!
GFS Weds Evening GFS V. Early Thurs GFS Thurs AM
GFS Thurs PM GFS V. Early Fri GFS Fri AM
That's what this run of the GFS is looking like. Some of the earlier runs allowed some of the heavier moisture to hang around a little while longer. This may jump back to that when the new stuff comes in so I am not so worried. What we really need to look at here is the constant flow of moisture that keeps rolling into Kentucky. Specifically, eastern KY! It's shaping up to be one of those events that will include some stronger winds that blow snow around. This one is looking good enough to keep me in the snowy spirits.
The 12z run of the GFS snowfall forecast looked like this when I came in earlier today.
The 18z is holding back on some of the higher totals and looks a lot like my first call. Let's home the next trend doesn't keep pulling the moisture away so we can keep the forecast right where it is or somewhere close to those numbers I came up with for my first call.
One thing that has been pretty consistent is the heavy snow that will fall over New England! That should be a good one! This data is from Weds night-Fri AM.
My forecast isn't based on the data you see above. I always use this stuff as a guide and note how they handle each type of situation. The only data that I reviewed was the 12z run of the GFS. The other wasn't available at the time.
Now no two systems will do the exact same thing, but watching them develop from beginning to end and see how these maps hold up in those situations always helps. It's all about getting the feel for the storm and after 9 years here (Technically on March 12th) I think we're doing better each season!
My First Call from around 3:23pm Tuesday afternoon.
Now for a test that all of you can see right here up until next week. Another system is developing for next week and has all of the potential in the world. We have about a week before it gets here. Each day I am going to post an image from the same time next week. That way we can all review it together and see how they change. I'll actually try to post all images in each post that way we can review it on the same page.
12z Run Tuesday
18z Run Tuesday
There are differences showing up between these two runs from Tuesday... I can only imagine where we will be by the time this little project is finished. Keep on me for the data... I have a tendency to forget my name... let alone a model project...LOL