These first few days of March will show us a taste of what this month has been traditionally known for. EVERYTHING! Since March is one of those transitional months it usually features many different things. This includes: Rain, Sleet, Snow, Severe Weather, 60+ Degrees, and anything else I have left off of this list. We'll see some of that within the first week.
SInce last week we have been slowly, but surely discussing the next big weather maker. It is finally here and you can track it with the radar.
The actual storm is blwing by tonight and into the day on Tuesday. If the track changed and the moisture was plwntuful we'd be in for some first round decent accumulations. I don't think it will be that way with this round. We'll see more... as I mentioned in posts last week... the only sure thing I felt about this storm was the snow that would blast into the region once the low turned the corner and moved up the east coast. The first part of this system has been the trick the whole time! Now it looks as if places like Hazard, Pineville, Middlesboro, Harlan, Whitesburg, Williamsburg, Jenkins, Barbourville, Hyden, Manchester, Pikeville, Prestonsburg and Inez have the better chances to see the first round of accumulation. The rest of us will see the snow chances go up through the week!
Total accumulations won't be super high, but we'll see some!
The GFS looks like this
That run goes all the way through Thursday!
I actually agree with how that looks... just remember that the first part of this system should lay 1"-2" in the areas I mentioned earlier. Maybe slightly less than that.
We have been working on a project since last week. Now we are at the end of the project and it is time to post our results. First, let's review the data!
18z run on Tuesday for March 2nd
18z run on Wednesday for March 2nd
18z run on Thursday for March 2nd
18z run on Friday for March 2nd
18z on Saturday for March 2nd
18z on Sunday for March 2nd
18z run on Monday for March 2nd
The last three keep the low right over the panhandle, while in earlier runs it was all over the place. Remember that the green, blue, pink, purple, and red blotches represent precip. It's not showing us which type it just precip. The low, the red L, is the storm itself. The black lines show us pressure.
This experiment has been a much milder case of big jumps in data. What I was watching was the trend with the low... it started coming around after the first couple of runs. IT wasn't exactly the same, but it was trending closer to the others. A step in the right direction.