The model data has been all over the place when considering this next round of storms for the weekend. The system itself hasn't been in question, but the rainfall amounts have gone back and forth.
It looks like it will be much worse out in western parts of Kentucky. That's where the heaviest rain has been most consistent on the model data. It looks like folks in those areas could see anywhere between 4"-7" of rain... all this weekend! Around here I think a good 2"-4" will be possible. Flooding will steal the headlines for the week if that much rain comes our way!
WRF Weekend Rainfall GFS Weekend Rainfall
The HPC's QPF looks like this.
AT any given time some of the storms that develop have potential to drop a large amount of rain in a hurry. That's where the true flash flood threat come into the equation. When you factor in the training of these cells... that's when you begin to have problems.
As far as the severe weather chances are concerned... I think that western parts of KY will have better chances to see the severe weather. That doesn't mean that we won't have our own chances around here because we will! Early parts of Saturday will feature isolated severe storms. The evening and overnight hours leading into Sunday and Sunday afternoon could be our time to shine.
Finally, the updated Derby Forecast. For years I have said that I am going to actually go to the Derby and not watch it on TV... just to say that I have been there. It's just one of those things that I want to do at least once. Something always pops up and I end up not going... once again... I am not going! The rain is the factor and it is one I don't want to deal with... so one of these days I will get there.