I ran some numbers just to see what the weekend rainfall did for our dry spell. As of Friday we were right at 3" behind for rainfall. After the weekend rains... we are still behind... but the gap has been closed tremendously! This is one way to get out of a dry patch... not the one I would have chosen!
Just over a half inch behind now! WOW! Again... I would have much rather seen the rain come over an extended period. Getting all of that at once just isn't safe! I don't pick what happens... I just figure it out!
There is a disturbance that will creep into the region on Wednesday night and into Thursday. This might be what brings a few more showers to KY. I am not really sold on it and I think most of us will stay on the dry side. Take a look!
GFS Early Thursday Morning GFS Thursday Morning
From what I am seeing here... it all dissipates around here.
WRF Early Thursday Morning WRF Thursday Morning
Again, You see the rain just disappears right over KY. Now what does that mean? That means I think that we'll stay mainly rain free... however... even though you aren't seeing anything in our area on either of these models... there is still a chance! I am not thinking an extreme chance... maybe we will see a few showers. You may be wondering where I am coming up with that?!?!?! Well... I'll just say that I have seen a very similar set-up before and it is hard to completely rule out a few showers or just plain old sprinkles!
The next round will arrive by late Friday. It isn't looking that impressive right now, but the cooler temps that come with it have "Very Impressive" written all over them! Highs will fall from the 80s by the end of the week... all the way down into the 60s by Saturday!
More details coming later.