I always love snow in the forecast. I know it causes problems, but it is so much fun to forecast! Even when the forecast is wrong you try to figure out why you missed and you learn something for next time! Next time is here and it is time to get the data out there for you.
This weekend system has been there all week. What I mean by that is... each run has picked up on the activity. Now we have to try and nail down a path. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the exact track, but I have a feeling that this system will take a southeryly track and end up leaving some impressive snowfall totals around here.
Remember, pink represents snow and green rain.
NAM Sat Mid-Day
NAM Sat Evening
NAM Sun Morning
GFS Mid-Day Saturday
GFS Sat Evening
GFS Sun Morning
The rain change over is a little more prominant on the GFS. Meaning that areas in southern KY would see some snow during the beginning and then go through an extended period of cold rain. It will change back to snow once the system passes through KY by early Sunday morning. Another issue will be deciding on where the heaviest snow bands set-up. This system will likely have a narrow band of heavier snow that will increase totals for some areas. In my first call I have gone pretty general. By Friday, I hope to have a more stable and confident forecast. I painted with a broad brush making this forecast. Before I show you that... look at what the models are spitting out.
GFS Snowfall Thru Sunday Night
NAM Snowfall Thru Sunday Night
This forecast is my preliminary run. I'd say I'll be tweaking the numbers on Friday. Then again... maybe not! We'll see
After this system gets out of town we'll see several more chances for snow through next week. By the time this taste of wintry weather is finished with the folks in the mountains we could have a few inches on the ground. I'll talk more about that this weekend!