An Interesting Turn Of Events

By: Jim Caldwell - Email

Posted: Tue 10:59 PM, Sep 28, 2010

Another tropical system is about to be named and some of the moisture associated with it could be in Kentucky later this week.

Let me just get this out of the way... the weather for Wednesday looks wonderful. The clouds should be out of here and the end result will mean that we see highs climb back into the 70s. It will be a chilly start to the day, but a nice overall weather picture.

Now that the good stuff is out of the way we'll talk about something that first looked a little iffy. The next tropical system... what will eventually become Tropical Storm Nicole... might just venture close enough to us to spread some moisture into east KY. At first I disregarded this and I only watched the system for fun. Now it has my attention and it has changed my forecast slightly. Last week I kept rain chances alive for several days this week. Once the time passed and the new week arrived I knew that daily rain wasn't as likely. Most of the data I looked at on Monday kept the system close, but not close enough to go with decent rain chances. As I watch the models come around and bring the rain closer to us... I have to wonder if the rain will penetrate the east coast enough to roll into east KY. The farther east you go Pikeville, Inez, Elkhorn City, Belfry, Jenkins, and maybe Prestonsburg-Paintsville) the better the rain chances will be from this system. However, if some of the data is accurate then most of KY will experience the rain!

EURO Thursday PM EURO Friday AM

The EURO shows the rains making it into KY. Eventually, the rain gets out of town early on Friday.

GFS Thursday PM GFS Friday Morning

The GFS has been more easterly with the track, but in this run the moisture is getting into East KY. For Early Friday morning it is long gone though.

NAM Thursday PM NAM Friday Morning

The NAM is a little more aggressive with the infiltration of the moisture.

NAM Rainfall

The NAM is pushing some pretty heavy amounts of rain into our area. It'll be close... so right now I am keeping my chances in there, but low!

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

I'll keep you posted!

C-Ya Bye

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