Rain has started streaming into eastern Kentucky around midnight Sunday night and will continue on and off on Monday. A deepening area of low pressure is pushing in from eastern Texas through the western Coalfields of Kentucky and will provide the lift in the atmosphere needed for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. This will place eastern Kentucky on the warm side of the storm system with temepratures in the mid to upper 60s Monday afternoon. Some ingredients for an isolated strong storm or two will begin to develop.
One ingredient that we look for with strong storms are winds changing speed and direction with height into the sky. Winds 17,000 feet above us will be screaming in from the southwest at over 100mph. This certainly checks this ingredient off the list.
The next ingredient is moisture. Dew point temperatures will briefly shoot up near 60°F during the afternoon as moisture from the northern Gulf coast streams northward. This ingredient can be checked off and leads to the next feature... instability.
(IMAGE ABOVE: Computer model forecast for dew point temperature showing values near 60°F in yellow)
Some instability will develop when these higher dew point temperatures move in during the afternoon, but it will be quite limited. Slightly higher instability than forecast will cause a few strong thunderstorms to develop across central and eastern Kentucky with some strong wind gusts and small hail. We will also be monitoring PinPoint Doppler for any rotation in some of these storms.
(IMAGE ABOVE: Computer model showing CAPE, measuring instability showing weak values across eastern KY)
Stay with WYMT on-air and online for the latest as this next round of rain rolls through the region.