Breaking down the severe weather threat

High winds may cause some problems across Eastern Kentucky Thursday night.

Good evening again friends.  It was another nice day across southern and eastern Kentucky with sunshine and warm temperatures after a few morning storms.  We now wait for the potential of severe weather across the mountains tomorrow evening.  Here's the very latest:




The entire region remains under a slight risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center.  High winds continue to be the main concern, although an isolated tornado or some isolated flooding can't be ruled out.  The wind will likely have a larger impact than normal because of the recent weather conditions.  All that snow and ice we've seen this winter has likely weakened the integrity of trees and their branches.  I'm expecting several to fall tomorrow and this could cause some power outage issues.

Let's map out the timing using the NAM future radar:

9:00 PM




1:00 AM

4:00 AM

So right now it looks like it will enter the Lake Cumberland region around 8:00 PM, cross I-75 around 11:00 PM or so, work into the KY River Valley just after midnight and the Big Sandy River Valley by around 1:00 in the morning.  Those times could change a bit, but should give you a rough idea when to expect the severe weather in your backyard.

The main things to look out for tomorrow:
-How much rain do we see in the morning and how much sunshine do we see in the afternoon? More rain and less sunshine would mean a lower chance of severe weather.  More sunshine and less rain would me a greater chance of severe weather.
-How quickly does the front pass?  A slower passage would likely mean a lower chance of severe weather for us because it would hit later in the night.
-Do we see any cells pop up ahead of the main line? If we do that would mean a greater chance of at least an isolated tornado. 

Be sure to join myself and Meteorologist Brandon Orr tonight as we talk about the severe weather threat on Google Plus at 7:45:

-Shane Smith



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