After a mainly dry weekend, more showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast this work week. On Monday, a disturbance will sweep by, sparking showers and thunderstorms in Tennessee. Some of these will creep across the border into the Cumberland River Valley (near I-75 easward to Bell and Harlan Counties). The remainder of the area from Hazard to Jackson northward into the Big Sandy will stay mainly dry... for now.
A line of showers with embeded thunderstorms will move in late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. We will get a brief break during the middle of the day Tuesday with some peeks of sunshine. This will give us some heating into the low 80s and make our atmosphere unstable, which is one ingredient for thunderstorm development. As an area of low pressure approaches western Tennessee and Kentucky, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into a line through Tennessee. I expect this line to move northeastward into eastern Kentucky late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Strong wind gusts and very heavy downpours will be the main threats.
Below is a frame from one of our computer models, which is simulating the radar into the future at about 11 p.m. Tuesday.
This chance for storms will continue through the rest of the work week. Our computer models show quite a bit of diagreement into next weekend. I have put in a chance for isolated storms for now, but we will have to monitor the trends to fine tune the weekend forecast through this week.
Have a great week!
-Meteorologist Brandon Orr (Find me on Facebook!)