Caldwell's 2010-2011 Winter Forecast

Once again it is time for me to give you my best bet on what winter will bring around here. I like to say that a lot of this is for entertainment. It is also a mess I have been working on for a few weeks. I hope you enjoy!

Let's get the housecleaning notes out in the open first.

  1. This is my opinion and much like any opinion on anything everybody has one. So some may disagree and some may agree. If you disagree and leave a comment I might delete it! HAHA
  2. I absolutely refuse to go into great detail on how I put this forecast together. If I start talking about analog years, La Nina or El Nino, Positive NAO or any other weather jargon I feel like you will get bored and dump me. HAHA!
  3. This forecast was put together by looking at the aforementioned items.
  4. It's about 60% climatology, 30% experience, and 10% a mad love for snow! HAHA
  5. This is to be taken seriously for entertainment purposes only. It is a real forecast!
  6. Any real long range snow forecasts are extremely hard to pull off due to individual storms that can throw the whole forecast out of whack! Like... the Blizzard of 1993!

December: Close calls for decent snowfall! Most of the activity will mainly stay just to our northwest. It should be a fairly wet month, but the cold air might not be in the right place at the right time for decent snowfall! That doesn't mean that we won't see any snowfall... just not as much as last season! Temps should come as you expect them to... milder in the beginning and colder by the end. Official call... Average Temps with Above Average Precip

January: Overall, it's a calm month! Some of the odds and ends that make weather exciting will be pushing the track of major storms west. In December, we see close calls, but it will mainly be a rainy month. In January, it could be even dryer! Yes, some of the smaller snow makers will come our way. The main storms will not be as common. Ultimately... Above Normal Temps with Below Normal Precip

February: This will be another month where you will see me talking about storm systems out west, but not as much here in KY. That doesn't mean that we won't see some of the big action. The track might be favorable enough for some decent activity. Cold may be a problem! Official call... Average Temps with Above Normal Precip

March: This could be the month that most of you snow lovers have been waiting for! We all know that this month can and has delivered some significant snowfall. The major storm track should be right on cue to deliver some snowfall! It starts out pretty entertaining and fades away very late in the month. For the first time this season I think temps will be colder than expected. Official call... Below Average Temps with Above Normal Precip

Now for the final and most important call on the winter. The total accumulated snowfall by winter's end. Remember all of this snow will not be on the ground at the same time. Last season, I pushed totals above normal. This season will have plenty of moisture, but the cold air might not be able to make the snow connection. I'm still going a little above normal!

Highest Elevations: 36"-40"

Everyone else: 25"-32"'

Note: The 36"-40" areas only include the higher elevations. Cities like Harlan, Middlesboro, Pineville, Whitesburg, Elkhorn City, Cumberland, and other lower spots will fall in the 25"-32" category.

Most common storm tracks for the upcoming season.

There you have my forecast for the 2010-2011 Winter Season. When it is all said and done... we could end up closer to the low end of these totals. The potential is there to climb to the top of the scale that's why I put it in there! Now let's sit back, relax, and wait for the snow!

Please leave your comments!

C-Ya Bye

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