Caldwell's 2011-2012 Winter Forecast

It's time to tackle the entire winter season once again. How much snow will this upcoming season throw our way? How cold will it be this winter? I have my answers to those questions right here!

Let's get the housecleaning notes out in the open first.

  1. This is my opinion and much like any opinion on anything everybody has one. So some may disagree and some may agree. If you disagree and leave a comment I might delete it! LOL
  2. I absolutely refuse to go into great detail on how I put this forecast together. If I start talking about analog years, La Nina or El Nino, Positive NAO or any other weather jargon I feel like you will get bored and dump me. All you want to really know is the basic information and I have provided you with just that. If you want a long chat about my methods fee free to email me or facebook me. LOL
  3. This forecast was put together by looking at the aforementioned items.
  4. It's about 60% climatology, 30% experience, and 10% a mad love for snow! LOL
  5. This is to be taken seriously for entertainment purposes only. It is a real forecast!
  6. Any real long range snow forecasts are extremely hard to pull off due to individual storms that can throw the whole forecast out of whack! Like... the Blizzard of 1993!

December: Just as much of November has been pretty bouncy… I think that continues through the first part of the month and then turns extremely cold. The mid part of the month toward the end should end up well below average temperature wise. The cold and the moisture should get together quite a bit during that time. Official Call… Above Normal Precip with Below Normal Temps. (note: The first part of the month will be mildish for December standards, but the final part of the month should be cold enough to bring Avg. temps down for the entire month)

January: Welcome to a wicked new year! This January has all kind of potential for big snow and bitter cold!!!! Students could be missing quite a few days as Mother Nature has the cold & moisture hooking up for the entire month. Official Call… Above Normal Precip with Below Normal Temps.

February: In the past I have often looked at February as a strong month and it has fizzled! This is a different situation for 2012. I think the first part of the month is very favorable for some good rounds of snow and cold. Some moderation comes into play towards the end of the month. Official Call… Normal Precip with Below Normal Temps.

March: Right on cue with the end of February… the moderation period will continue through the beginning of the month. The middle of the month could have some potential for snow’s last hurrah. Overall, the month should stay fairly calm… but the mid-month stuff could be interesting enough for the entire month! Official Call…  Above Normal Precip with Normal Temps

Now for the final and most important call on the winter. The total accumulated snowfall by winter's end. Remember all of this snow will not be on the ground at the same time. Last season, I pushed totals above normal. This season I am doing the same thing! The cold is loaded across Canada and it is ready to come and stay a while in KY. With plenty of moisture getting thrown into the mix… we could see some impressive seasonal totals.

Another concern I have this season is icing. Due to tracking I think we could have a better potential for more ice events across KY.


*Highest Elevations: 45"-55"

McCreary, Whitley, Laurel, Clay, Bell, Perry, Knox, Knott, Letcher, Harlan, Breathitt, Floyd, Pike, & Martin fall in the  29-36" Range

**Magoffin, Martin, Johsnon, Rockcastle, Jackson, Wolfe, Lee, Owsley, Morgan, and parts of Pulaski end up in the 23"-29" range. 



(**Note: The 23"-29" zone could be a better target for icing this season so snowfall totals have been cut compared to other parts od our region)

(*Note: The 45"-55" areas only include the higher elevations. Cities like Harlan, Middlesboro, Pineville, Whitesburg, Elkhorn City, Cumberland, and other lower spots will fall in the 29"-36" category.)

Most common storm tracks for the upcoming season.

This "most common path" will allow enough warm air to come into play to get the ice events I have mentioned. The scaling on the snowfall totals is a range... I think we could end up between those amounts. Isolated areas will vary and could be completely off the scale. I am looking at the average for the complete area. Once again... it is time to sit back and wait for Mother Nature to either make me look like a genius or an idiot... time will tell!

Please leave your comments!

C-Ya Bye

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