Caldwell's 2012-2013 Winter Forecast

It's time to tackle the entire winter season once again. How much snow will this upcoming season throw our way? How cold will it be this winter? I have my answers to those questions right here!

Let's get the housecleaning notes out in the open first.

  1. This is my opinion and much like any opinion on anything everybody has one. So some may disagree and some may agree. If you disagree and leave a comment I might delete it! LOL
  2. I absolutely refuse to go into great detail on how I put this forecast together. If I start talking about analog years, La Nina or El Nino, Positive NAO or any other weather jargon I feel like you will get bored and dump me. All you want to really know is the basic information and I have provided you with just that. If you want a long chat about my methods fee free to email me or facebook me. LOL
  3. This forecast was put together by looking at the aforementioned items.
  4. It's about 60% climatology, 30% experience, and 10% a mad love for snow! LOL
  5. This is to be taken seriously for entertainment purposes only. It is a real forecast!
  6. Any real long range snow forecasts are extremely hard to pull off due to individual storms that can throw the whole forecast out of whack! Like... the Blizzard of 1993!

December: I don’t really expect much to change between now (November 13th 2012) and the beginning of the month. Honestly, I think we’ll fair pretty well through the month. I’m certainly not saying we won’t see a couple of cold snaps.Yes, we'll see some snow. I just don't think the big players will be heading towards us yet. I am saying that we’ll have numerous great weather days. OFFICIAL CALL: Above Normal Temps with Below Normal Precip

January: Much like December… it’s relatively calm! Especially, the first 20 days of the month. Somewhere towards the end of the month I think true Winter will finally start creeping around. OFFICIAL CALL: Above Normal Temps with Below Normal Precip

February: Hello… My name is Winter and I’m a little late to the party! That will likely be the statement of the month. This looks like the beginning of the very active wintry part of the season. Watch for potential heavy hitters! OFFICIAL CALL: Below Normal Temps with Above Normal Precip

March: The first part of the month will be very active as far as wintry weather potential is concerned. Just like a switch being flipped... Spring will arrive right on cue. I think we’ll say good bye to those rounds of snow and we’ll welcome the nice stuff in rather quickly. But that won’t make up for the overall cold in the first part of the month. That will pull the average temps down for the entire month.  OFFICIAL CALL: Below Normal Temps with Above Normal Precip

Now for the final and most important call on the winter. The total accumulated snowfall by winter's end. Remember all of this snow will not be on the ground at the same time.

*Highest Elevations: 30"-42"

McCreary, Whitley, Laurel, Clay, Bell, Perry, Knox, Knott, Letcher, Harlan, Breathitt, Floyd, Pike, & Martin fall in the 19”-27" Range

Magoffin, Martin, Johsnon, Rockcastle, Jackson, Wolfe, Lee, Owsley, Morgan, and parts of Pulaski end up in the 16"-23" range. 


(*Note: The 30"-42" areas only include the higher elevations. Cities like Harlan, Middlesboro, Pineville, Whitesburg, Elkhorn City, Cumberland, and other lower spots will fall in the 19"-27" category.)

The "Big Hitter" snow track for this season looks like this:


Feel free to love it, hate it, bash it, or whatever else you wanna do.

Now let's see how this pans out :)

C-Ya Bye


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