Everything Still On Track

By: Jim Caldwell - Email

Posted: Sun 1:47 AM, Oct 28, 2012

The monster storm continues working up the east coast of the U.S. and if current trends continue... we'll see a very interesting impact!

This storm continues to unfold and yes there is still a lot of uncertainty. The data is running so close together right now that it's almost scary. I can't think of a time that the data was looking this united this far out... with a significant system that is.

I'll show you some of the new runs for snowfall. The HPC is also paying close attention to the heavy snow threat for east Ky and West Virginia.

Before I show you the maps I want you to remember just a couple things.

These are forecast models and not my forecast. These are used for some guidance
Impact can change significantly with a slight shift in the track
There will likely be a lot of melting with any accumulation

Let's first review the HPC's

PROBABILITY GRAPHICS FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN

These graphics indicate the probability (potential) for a location to receive specific thresholds of accumulated.

Snowfall - closed lines represent the probability (slight, moderate, and high) that enclosed areas will receive equal to or greater than a specific threshold accumulation (4", 8" or 12") of snowfall in a 24 hour period.

This is for Sunday night into Monday night.

Monday night into Tuesday night

Now you see what the folks at the HPC are saying. Now here's some of that same data that they have reviewed to come up with the opinion.

NAM Snow

This all begins late Sunday night. It looks like bit of a break during the day on Monday... it will be wet... just more rain than anything else. Finally, it changes again Monday night and that's when the snow chances will be higher. It's a total mess that will include snow and very high winds. It looks like somewhere around 30-40mph wind gusts will be possible in eastern Ky.

Remember, the track means everything and if it changes everything I have said will also change. I'll have another update by Sunday afternoon if not earlier!

C-Ya Bye

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