A Wild Ride Is Coming & Someone's Winter Forecast

The next 10 days look very interesting around here. With highs in the 70s, frost, rain, and even some other interesting odds & ends!

It has been a fairly calm period around here over the last few weeks. An occasional shower, some frost here and there, and some pretty impressive temps. Pretty much.... an uneventful forecast. Several things are going to take place over the next week or so that will make me forget all about the "UN" and focus more on how eventful the forecast looks.

Just like with wintertime let's get the simple stuff out of the way.

The system that brought those howling winds into the area Thursday made a pretty dry run across KY. It will not disappoint with colder air. Overnight lows will look like what you see above in many locations. I'm sicking with highs on Friday in the low 60s. Some locations could creep a little warmer and totally destroy my general forecast, but I think most of us will stay in that general temp range!

Fun & Games Begin Here

The fun I am referring to really won't begin until I start putting forecasts together next week. That won't keep me from talking more about them right here though!

A series of systems will begin working towards KY beginning early next week. The data has slowed the progression of the 1st system down quite a bit. What that means for you is the weekend won't be too bad at all! It's the brand new work week that will be wet. Not a big deal though... we need the rain!

GFS Monday Morning                    GFS Tuesday Morning               GFS Wednesday Morning

The rain is with us for most of the week. This is all part of the first big wave... the next big wave has me preparing a little more cautiously!

On Thursday we could see a pretty decent round of showers and maybe even some thunderstorms. That same system will try to pull some really cold air into KY for Friday

GFS Thursday Morning                                         GFS Friday Morning

Unlike earlier runs this week... the moisture is trying to out run the cold air. There is still a possibility that by the time this rolls around... the moisture and cold air could have a meet & greet! At the same time... the might not get together at all this go around. Which would be perfectly normal.

I have no doubt that som emuch cooler air will be invading KY... I'll kepp you updated on that!

Officials at NOAA officially issued their forecast for winter. Mine won't be out until November. Check it out!

The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.

La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures. Both of these climate phenomena, which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme weather events. Last winter’s El Niño contributed to record-breaking rain and snowfall leading to severe flooding in some parts of the country, with record heat and drought in other parts of the country. Although La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, it also has the potential to bring weather extremes to parts of the nation.

“La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “This is a good time for people to review the outlook and begin preparing for what winter may have in store.”

“Other climate factors will play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

Regional highlights include:

  • Pacific Northwest:  colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns;
  • Southwest: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
  • Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
  • Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
  • Florida: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
  • Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
  • Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
  • Central U.S.: equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation;
  • Hawaii: drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui;
  • Alaska: odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.

This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/US.National.Weather.Service.gov.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.


C-Ya Bye

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